جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه "مدل سازی رشد شهری" در نشریات گروه "محیط زیست"

The purpose of this study is to investigate the physical growth characteristics of Nazarabad city in the past and predict its future changes until 2050 using the SLEUTH model. In this study, the urban map was extracted from the Landsat satellite images of 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2020, and using the layers of slope, land use, excluded layer, urban extent, transportation network, and hill shade, it was entered into the SLEUTH model and urban growth was simulated in two historical and environmental scenarios. To provide a more favorable prediction of future land use changes in the SLEUTH model in the environmental scenario, the multi-criteria evaluation (MCE) method was used using twenty layers that have the greatest impact on land suitability for urban development. The layers used in the MCE process were related to topography, geology, weather and climate, water resources, biological, urban distances and land use. The results of the first scenario showed that from 2020 to 2050, 390 hectares will be added to the urban land and part of the gardens and agricultural land will be lost. The results of the second scenario showed that 205 hectares of valuable land could remain intact, thus preventing further fragmentation of the land use pattern in the future. The simulation results of the physical development of Nazarabad city showed that the combination of SLEUTH model with MCE can be a very useful tool for city managers to facilitate the evaluation of urban development patterns.

The logistic regression (LR) method, as an empirical estimation method, was used to model urban growth in Gorgan city between the years 1987-2001. Three groups of variables including Social-economic, land use and biophysical variables were used. Similarity among variables is probable. To remove the correlated variables, covariance was calculated and distance to administrative, sporting centers and cities, with covariance greater than 0.9, were deleted from the group of independent variables. Relative operating characteristic (ROC), was used to assess success of modeling approaches and to assess the model sensitivity for independent variables remove. ROC value for the LR with full data was 0.87. Using probability image of urban growth predicted by the LR model, which shows likelihood for land use change to urban use in future; urban distribution patterns for the years 2010, 2020, 2030 and 2040 were created. New urban location is selected from the cells with the most likelihood for land use change. Also, the relative effect of the 10 predictor variables were evaluated through ROC using 10 reduced-variable models and the full model. Cultivated areas and pasture were the most influential variables in comparison with the others in driving urban growth. This shows that present land use has the most important rule in urban growth in Gorgan city.