جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه « تصادفات روستایی » در نشریات گروه « عمران »

Nowadays, it is necessary to understand the factors affecting accidents, especially on rural roads. In this study, in order to determine the most effective factor in the occurrence of accidents, analysis and modeling of effective factors on rural roads of Guilan province in 1392 to 1397 have been conducted. First, frequency analysis was used to evaluate the variables and their frequency. Then, Friedman test was utilized to prioritize the factors and exploratory factor analysis was used to determine the most effective factor in the occurrence of vehicle accidents. Finally, multiple logistic regression models were used to predict the probability of the occurrence of accidents. Based on Friedman test results, weather conditions, road surface conditions and the type of vehicle accident were identified as the first to third factors affecting accidents, respectively. Exploratory factor analysis showed that five factors as the main factors are involved in accidents that the variables of weather conditions and road surface conditions as an environmental factor were recognized as the first effective factor in accidents. Also, multiple logistic regression models with more accuracy in predicting the severity of accidents (84.7%) showed that cloudy weather, dry road surface and wet road surface had the highest effect on occurrence of accidents, respectively. Results of accident sensitivity analysis also showed that logistic regression (with the area under the curve 0.932) was much more accurate than factor analysis (with the area under the curve 0.849), which shows the high power of this model in predicting and evaluating of accidents severity.

The increasing number of vehicles on rural roads as a result of population growth has led to one of the most important problems of the transportation system, namely traffic accidents, which affects the economic and social situations of the people. Guilan province is one of the most beautiful tourist areas in northern Iran and many business and leisure trips are made to this area. As a result of these trips, road accidents occur. Investigation of accidents in terms of effective factors makes it possible to predict the occurrence or non-occurrence of accidents requiring relief equipment. In addition, the impact of each factor on the severity of accidents can be examined. It is obvious that such knowledge will lead to the possibility of developing traffic safety programs for traffic engineers, and they can also have a better understanding of the factors that have a positive or negative impact on the severity of accidents. The purpose of this study is to investigate the factors affecting the severity of traffic accidents on rural roads of Guilan province to determine the most important factors affecting the occurrence of these accidents. In this study, using frequency analysis, the variables were explored and finally, in accordance with the results, safety solutions were proposed to increase safety and reduce accidents on these roads.