جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه « Agent-based modeling » در نشریات گروه « مهندسی آب »

In this research, a new framework of socio-hydrological modeling framework has been developed in order to evaluate the performance of human-water systems. For this purpose, a comprehensive hydrological model has been developed by combining SWAT and MODFLOW models to simulate surface and underground water resources. Then by using Value-Belief-Norm Theory, the effective factors in the water consumption behavior of farmers are identified. Finally, by combining the SWAT-MODFLOW model and the Agent-Based Model based on the theory of VBN, the behavioral pattern of farmers in choosing the type of cultivation and irrigation method has been evaluated. The theoretical framework of the VBN theory and the behavioral rules of agents in ABM are designed based on the data collected from Mahabad plain farmers through field questionnaires. Afterward, an analysis and investigation were conducted on the response of the socio-hydrology model that was developed, utilizing climate change data from the 6th IPCC report and the ACCESS-CM2 model, for the planning horizon. The results showed that those farmers who are below the poverty threshold try to improve their unfavorable economic situation by choosing profitable crops for farming. Therefore, if no fundamental change is made in management policies in the future, the climate change will reduce the profit within the agricultural sector and the pattern of cultivation will change towards crops with high profits and yet high water consumptions. If the management methods remain unchanged in the future, the yield of the crops, the income of the farmers in the region, and at the same time the inflow to Lake Urmia from the Mahabad River will decrease significantly. Therefore, it is recommended to adjust the management policies as a way to deal with the effects of the climate change. In general, the results of the present research can be considered for future planning and policies and for estimating how changes in economic and psychological factors for farmers affect the restoration of Lake Urmia.

Excessive water extraction from aquifers in arid and semi-arid areas poses a serious threat to natural resources and the environment. Damghan's critical forbidden plain has faced a drop in groundwater level in recent years. In this study, the agent-based model has been used to simulate the behavior of effective stakeholders in the region. First, the agent-based model is considered based on the key stakeholders of the region (farmers are the most important consumers of groundwater in the region, Regional Water Company and Agriculture- Jahad), characteristics, behavior, characteristics of the environment, how the interaction between the agents and the environment (Damghan aquifer). Information about exploitation wells and characteristics of the dominant cultivation in the region is related to 1397. To identify the behavior and characteristics of the agents, a visit to the area and interviews with experts and farmers have been done. The characteristics, behaviors, and interactions of agents are expressed by if-then rules or logical operators or by formulated equations. Then, management scenarios in the study area have been studied for 10 years. The results show that the simultaneous implementation of four projects of installing smart meters, modifying well licenses, promoting new irrigation systems, and establishing production cooperatives while maintaining farmers' net incomes will reduce water withdrawal 44% compared to the base scenario. Also, as a result of the implementation of these four projects, the irrigation method of 4000 hectares of agricultural lands will be changed to pressurized irrigation.

This study examines how water rights are distributed and traded between farmers in the Mojen region. Furthermore, based on field study and interviews with a group of farmers, an agent-based model is suggested for simulation of Mojen Water Market (MWM). Markets, such as MWM, are far different from the modern ones in developed countries; nontheless the results of the study declared that by eliminating barriers and providing an appropriate background for sbetter water right trads, water markets like MWM will be able to play a pivotal and productive role in the water resources management. We demonstrated how the increase in interactions between farmers as well as cooperation of the Mojen Irrigation Company and the farmers, lead to productive and more profitable results. We showed that as the farmers interactions increased, the average number of farmers below the poverty line would be reduced by 25%. Furthermore, we assessed the water market’s performance, from the cultivated area’s viewpoint, under dry years condition. For instance, during the sever drought of 2006-2008 period, the result showed a mild reduction in crop cultivation compared to the normal situation.

One way to deal with this phenomenon is to impose a fine policy by the competent authorities. Since farmers are over-exploitation under specific socio-economic and agricultural conditions, evaluation of the effects of penalty patterns based on a socio-economic simulation is required. This research has provided an agent based simulation framework to study the status of three agricultural, environmental and regulator agent in agricultural environment. In this research, agricultural sector behavior has been modeled in two layers, one is agricultural sub-factors in order to maximize individual profit under physical and behavioral constraints by using fuzzy inference system and mathematical programming, and other is the group-agricultural agents in order to maximize agricultural profitability under the constraints of individual preferences by combining non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-II) and social chose method. The proposed framework was applied to the Najafabad hydrological unit in Isfahan. The results showed that the level of unit hydrograph’s aquifer was drawdown 21.82, 17.18 and 10.5, respectively, while the fines of 2, 3, and 4 thousand Rials per cubic meter were imposed by regulator agent.

Modeling socio-hydrological interactions are one of the essential requirements for water resources management in water-stressed areas. The Ardabil aquifer (Northwestern Iran) is one of the restricted aquifers under intense development activities. The water table is dramatically declining and leading the area to an environmental disaster. In this study, a simulation-optimization model has been developed for solving the Ardabil groundwater problem, which simulates groundwater level changes and determines the optimal water exploitation values. These models have been linked by a new method in the MATLAB which provides access to various MODFLOW packages and takes up less memory. The simulation-optimization model has been then linked to an agent-based model, which simulates agents’ behavior and their interactions. For this purpose, firstly the key agents and their desirability have been determined. Then, the particle swarm optimization algorithm is used to estimate the agents’ desired groundwater exploitation values. In the next step, the best solution using the compromised programming method is selected according to the experts' point of view. Finally, the agent-based model provided the final exploitation values, taking into account social pressure and management rules (incentive and penalties). The results show that groundwater demand is reduced up to 22% in comparison to the initial value. This demand reduction resulted in 90 cm of the increase in the groundwater level for the entire plain.

Leading towards sustainable water use and optimal allocation of water resources, water banks are efficient institutions. Water banks facilitate the trade of surface water and groundwater and engender water security. This study develops a couple agent-based groundwater model in NetLogo platform to assess economic and hydrologic impacts of water buyback programs in framework of a water bank institution. Rafsanjan Plain which faces serious problems due to water shortage, is selected as case study where the developed model is applied. Results show that buyback programs can temporarily ameliorate the condition of the Rafsanjan Aquifer, but there is a need for some other measures, like cap-and-trade policy, in conjunction with buyback program. Because of the buyback program, the drawdown of aquifer's unit hydrograph reduces from 80 to 58 cm per year. Moreover, the water bank improves the economic situation of the area as it increases the farmers' net benefit by 6 percent.

Regarding the supply of large amount of water demand from groundwater resources on the one hand, and increasing water level drop of the aquifers on the other hand, the importance of groundwater resources management is significantly increasing. Due to the complexities in the socio-ecological systems related to the groundwater resources, there is a need for tools to model these complexities in the form of effective agents’ relations. Agent-based modeling (ABM) is a computer simulation with a comprehensive approach of stakeholders, or agents that interact with each other and with their environment based on certain behavioral principles. In this paper, farmers, effective institutional agents and aquifer behaviors and their interactions in the Shabestar-Sofian plain is modeled using ABM with stakeholder participation through interviews and semi-structured questionnaires. The results of the implementation of five sample scenarios show that if the institutions are properly coordinated and the participation of farmers is attracted, it could be possible to reduce 202 million cubic meters of wells extraction over 10 years, in addition to increasing the income of farmers simultaneously and to compensate about 40 percent of negative groundwater balance. Using this model, a better understanding of the sophisticated system of groundwater resources management can be obtained, stakeholder participation can be attracted, and by defining scenarios in a participatory process, better solutions can be achieved in the decision-making process.

Actors involved in water resources system play a great role in sustaining it. The importance of this role signifies the necessity for taking into consideration the social-ecological aspects in modeling such systems. Agent-based models are powerful tools in modeling social-ecological systems with evolving applications in different fields, especially water resources management, in recent years. In this paper, a general introduction of the agent-based modeling approach is presented and four main challenges in modeling water resources systems with these models i.e. Designing agents’ behaviors, linking social and ecological sections, spatial representation, and calibration, verification and validation have been discussed. Considering agricultural sector as the main user of water, well credited papers with high citations in this regard were analyzed to clarify the challenges and build a reliable approach for application of these models in water resources management.