جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه « Conflict Resolution » در نشریات گروه « مهندسی آب »

A system dynamic model is necessary to estimate the existing interactions between Urmia Lake and factors affecting it. In this study, the Predator-Prey model using system dynamics simulation has been developed for Urmia Lake Basin. The main advantage of this model is providing the balanced water allocation between stakeholders in order to have a sustainable water management system for the lake. Due to increasing the area of irrigated lands in the northwest of Iran, having an applicable and up-to-date method to reduce water consumption in agricultural part is unavoidable. A stock-flow model has been designed in this study, in which Urmia Lake and irrigated lands are considered as the prey and predator, respectively. Then, the effects of various factors on the water elevation fluctuations of the lake have been analyzed dynamically and the strategies for reducing the water consumption of agricultural part have been investigated carefully. The results of this study indicate that the reducing irrigated lands by 40%, improve irrigation efficiency by 21% and reducing the area of lake by 20% lead to increasing water level of the lake by 1.7, 0.8 and 0.5 meters, respectively. By applying these policies, the water level of the lake will increase about 4.3 meters and it will lead to better ecological condition.

In recent years, population growth and economic development all around the world has led to an increase in water demand and it has been a serious challenge to its management, particularly, in Shared River Basins. Game theory is one of the most substantial means of conflict resolution and reaching equilibrium in a system. In the present study, the players' strategies were analyzed through the non-cooperative approach of game theory in the shared basin of Harirrud. At first, a comprehensive linear programming model was developed to calculate the player's net profit. Then the players profit was calculated considering the defined non-cooperative scenario. In the next step, the players’ strategy was carried out using different approaches to analyze each of these methods and their stability are examined. The concept of intensive compensation was also used to examine the possibility of changing the Afghanistan's approach from non-cooperative to cooperative. The results showed that in Iran's non-cooperative approach, Iran's profits fall by nearly 45 percent. Similarly, the intensive compensation approach can change the strategy of Afghanistan from non-cooperative to cooperative. Therefore, according to Pareto's optimality, it is possible to increase 40 percent of Iran's profits without reducing profits in Afghanistan.

Allocating the water resources in a basin to several stakeholders is a common issue at both national and international levels. Despite the many extensive studies carried out on the water allocation problem, a method still needs to be developed for the equitable and sustainable allocation of water to all the stakeholders in a shared basin. Over the last few decades, a number of mathematical methods such as the Nash bargaining, area monotonic, equal loss, and Kalai-Smorodinsky solutions have been applied to the problem of conflict resolution that are collectively known as optimization methods, each one yielding a single solution. In this study, a novel mathematical model based on the prey-predator equation is employed for water allocation to resolve conflicts among stakeholders in the agricultural sector. The advantage of the proposed model lies in its capability to calculate balanced allocation of irrigation water to stakeholders aimed at the sustainable development of the region. The model calculates the stakeholders’ profits and payoffs and determines their interactions in a time series. Finally, the model is employed for resolving conflicts in the Atrak River basin in the northeast of Iran which is now facing a serious water tension. Comparison of the results obtained from the proposed model and those from four conventional conflict resolution methods applied to the same basin implies the superiority of the proposed model in yielding dynamic solutions rather single ones.

During recent years, unavoidable consequences of increased demand for, and decreased supply of, various natural resources, especially water, have caused increased conflict over their exploitation and also allocation to different stakeholders. Water allocations merely based on a water rights approach usually do not make efficient use of water for the whole river basin. Thus, there is a need for a comprehensive and stable allocation method that can satisfy all involved interest groups in the best manner. One of these methods is game theory that can be used to allocate the water resources among riparian parties regarding principles of equity, efficiency and sustainability. In this study, first a comprehensive linear programming model has been developed to achieve the optimal allocation pattern based on the initial water rights of stakeholders. Then, by using the results of the water planning model combined with the game theoretical concepts such as the Core, the Shapely Value, and, the Gately propensity to disrupt index, possible cases of cooperation among riparian parties have been evaluated. Finally, through the case study of the Orumieh River Basin in Iran with scarce water resources and multiple users, effectiveness and potential advantages of this approach have been shown. The results of the optimization model showed that the Kordestan province has the best situation in supplying its demands relative to the other provinces and in contrast, the East Azarbayejan has the most deficiency in supplying its demands in both agriculture and environmental sectors. Moreover, by following the given allocation pattern, the amount of water entering the Lake Orumieh will be more than its environmental demand during the planning. Therefore, the results of this study showed that cooperative game theory can be applied successfully to assess the cases of cooperation in the Orumieh River Basin in conjunction with a comprehensive water planning model.