جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه « Spatial Prediction » در نشریات گروه « فنی و مهندسی »

Solar radiation is one of the most salient factors in determining the optimal locations of solar farms. It is the main input of geological, ecological, meteorological and hydrological models. In Iran, there are 63 stations which measures solar radiation; compared to the extent of the country, solar radiation monitoring network has very low densities. In the present study, in order to increase the network congestion and continuous mapping of solar radiation, synoptic meteorological stations’ data were used. Considering the high correlation between solar radiation and meteorological data (sunshine duration, maximum temperature and negatively high correlated sea pressure), such data was used to calculate solar radiation in synoptic stations by using Fuzzy Inference System (FIS), Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference Systems (ANFIS). The evaluation of the results was performed by RMSE, MAE and MBE to rank the methods. Our results revealed that Sugeno method accompanied by Fuzzy C-mean clustering has RMSE=28.07 w/m2 that lays the least errors amongst the others. With respect to ANN, Cub-clustering and Grid partition ANFIS, Sugeno method showed 18, 39% and 42% improvement. MAE and MBE also implied the ability of the Sugeno fuzzy method. Such a method is more flexible for modeling complex and nonlinear systems. The implementation of the methods in prediction of solar radiation revealed that Sugeno is easier and faster to executable. Estimated Solar radiation for 333 synoptic stations was interpolated by Ordinary Kriging to generate a continuous surface for the country. The generated solar radiation atlas is suitable to identify solar throw areas of our country as well as for engineering applications and energy planning. Radiation atlas showed that 32 percent of the country has solar radiation above 500w/m2 that is the amount of radiation required for solar farms.

It is important to answer the question of how occurrence of an earthquake can trigger another? An earthquake happening is accompanied with fault or fracture in the earth's crust. For this purpose, it is necessary to examine failure criteria in elastic environment of earth’s crust that is Coulomb failure criteria. Coulomb stress change analysis has been applied in numerous seismically active regionsof the globe. These studies demonstrate categorically that the locations and rates of futureearthquakes are affected by the static stress changes due to nearby historicalearthquakes. In this study, Coulomb stress interaction between the fault systems in Iran has been studied. Parameters of earthquakes with magnitude above 6 that have occurred in this region from 1900 to 2001 have been collected from various sources in order to calculate Coulomb stress. The results indicate that more than 80% of the occurred earthquakes from 2001 to 2013 in the region of increased Coulomb stress caused by the past 100 years earthquakes have the rate of 0.01 to 5. Also, the calculation of Coulomb stress changes on the strike-slip, stretching and normal fault pages with optimized geometry shows that the faults which have the same direction as optimized geometry, are prone to rupture and cause earthquake as the results of increased Coulomb stress caused by earthquake and are considered as areas of high risk for future earthquakes.