جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه "منحنی تداوم جریان" در نشریات گروه "آب و خاک"
تکرار جستجوی کلیدواژه «منحنی تداوم جریان» در نشریات گروه «کشاورزی»-
در این تحقیق با استفاده از منحنی های تداوم بار(LDC) به تعیین منابع آلاینده تاثیرگذار بر رودخانه تجن پرداخته شد. ابتدا به کمک توابع توزیع احتمال و اطلاعات دبی جریان موجود (18 سال)، برترین منحنی تداوم جریان در دو ایستگاه هیدرومتری ریگ چشمه و کردخیل ترسیم و سپس منحنی های حداکثر بار مجاز آلاینده نیترات برای دو کاربری کشاورزی و اکوسیستم آبی در فصول کشت و غیر کشت ایجاد گردید، سپس منحنی های LDC برای دوره 8 ساله موجود (90-91 تا 97-98) ترسیم گردید. نتایج نشان داد که در محدوده ایستگاه ریگ چشمه بیشتر منابع غیرنقطه ای بر آلاینده نیترات رودخانه تاثیرگذارند و در محل ایستگاه کردخیل با توجه به افزایش موردی میزان آلاینده نیترات برای دبی های حداقل در فصول کشت مشخص گردید که منابع غیرنقطه ای عامل این افزایش می باشد. نتایج این مطالعه نشان دهنده توانایی مطلوب منحنی های تداوم بار در تعیین منشاء بار آلاینده بودند. از طرف دیگر با بررسی های انجام گرفته و با توجه به شرایط کیفی رودخانه از ایستگاه کردخیل تا مصب دریا در حدود 16 کیلومتری، مشخص گردید که رودخانه در فصول کشت دچار آلودگی بیشتر از حد مجاز خصوصا در نزدیکی مصب می باشد، لذا بازنگری در محاسبات آزادسازی جریان از سد شهید رجایی، مصرف بهینه آب در مسیر رودخانه و نیز مدیریت بکارگیری کودهای ازته در اراضی منطقه باید مورد توجه قرار گیرد.
کلید واژگان: آلودگی, حداکثر بار مجاز, کیفیت آب, منحنی تداوم بار, منحنی تداوم جریانWater quality assessment is one of the most important research and implementation issues in the world. Load continuity curve is a method that can achieve favorable results with less data in the field of determining the quality conditions of the river and its influencing factors. In this research, LDC curves were used to determine the pollutant sources affecting the Tajen River. First, with the help of probability distribution functions and stream discharge information (18 years), the best curves of flow continuity in two hydrometric stations including Rig Cheshme and Kordkhil were drawn, and then the curves of the maximum allowable load of nitrate pollutant for two agricultural uses and water ecosystem in the cultivation and non-cultivation seasons were created. Then the LDC curves were drawn for the 8-year period from 1390-91 to 1397-98.The results showed that in the area of Rig Cheshme station, most of the non-point sources affect the nitrate pollution of the river, however in Kordkhel station, due to the occasional increase in the amount of nitrate pollution for minimum discharges in the cultivation seasons, it was determined that non-point sources are the cause of this increase. The results of this study showed the favorable ability of load continuity curves in determining the origin of pollutant load. On the other hand, with the investigations done and according to the quality conditions of the river from Kordakhil station to the mouth of the Tajen river, it was found that the river is more polluted than the permissible limit near the mouth during the cultivation seasons. Therefore, the revision of the calculations of releasing the flow from the Shahid Rajaei dam, the optimal water consumption in the river, and the management of the application of nitrogen fertilizers in the lands of the region should be considered.Water quality assessment is one of the most important research and implementation issues in the world. Load continuity curve is a method that can achieve favorable results with less data in the field of determining the quality conditions of the river and its influencing factors. In this research, LDC curves were used to determine the pollutant sources affecting the Tajen River. First, with the help of probability distribution functions and stream discharge information (18 years), the best curves of flow continuity in two hydrometric stations including Rig Cheshme and Kordkhil were drawn, and then the curves of the maximum allowable load of nitrate pollutant for two agricultural uses and water ecosystem in the cultivation and non-cultivation seasons were created. Then the LDC curves were drawn for the 8-year period from 1390-91 to 1397-98.The results showed that in the area of Rig Cheshme station, most of the non-point sources affect the nitrate pollution of the river, however in Kordkhel station, due to the occasional increase in the amount of nitrate pollution for minimum discharges in the cultivation seasons, it was determined that non-point sources are the cause of this increase. The results of this study showed the favorable ability of load continuity curves in determining the origin of pollutant load. On the other hand, with the investigations done and according to the quality conditions of the river from Kordakhil station to the mouth of the Tajen river, it was found that the river is more polluted than the permissible limit near the mouth during the cultivation seasons. Therefore, the revision of the calculations of releasing the flow from the Shahid Rajaei dam, the optimal water consumption in the river, and the management of the application of nitrogen fertilizers in the lands of the region should be considered.Water quality assessment is one of the most important research and implementation issues in the world. Load continuity curve is a method that can achieve favorable results with less data in the field of determining the quality conditions of the river and its influencing factors. In this research, LDC curves were used to determine the pollutant sources affecting the Tajen River. First, with the help of probability distribution functions and stream discharge information (18 years), the best curves of flow continuity in two hydrometric stations including Rig Cheshme and Kordkhil were drawn, and then the curves of the maximum allowable load of nitrate pollutant for two agricultural uses and water ecosystem in the cultivation and non-cultivation seasons were created. Then the LDC curves were drawn for the 8-year period from 1390-91 to 1397-98.The results showed that in the area of Rig Cheshme station, most of the non-point sources affect the nitrate pollution of the river, however in Kordkhel station, due to the occasional increase in the amount of nitrate pollution for minimum discharges in the cultivation seasons, it was determined that non-point sources are the cause of this increase. The results of this study showed the favorable ability of load continuity curves in determining the origin of pollutant load. On the other hand, with the investigations done and according to the quality conditions of the river from Kordakhil station to the mouth of the Tajen river, it was found that the river is more polluted than the permissible limit near the mouth during the cultivation seasons. Therefore, the revision of the calculations of releasing the flow from the Shahid Rajaei dam, the optimal water consumption in the river, and the management of the application of nitrogen fertilizers in the lands of the region should be considered.
Keywords: Plloution, Maximum permissible load, Water Quality, Load continuity curve, Flow continuity curve -
در این پژوهش با استفاده از الگوریتم های یادگیری به بررسی کارایی مدل های RF، RepTree، GP-PUK، GP-RBF و M5P برای مدل سازی بار معلق رودخانه در استان لرستان شامل حوزه های آبخیز خرم آباد، بیرانشهر و الشتر پرداخته شد. برای انجام این کار از داده های ورودی بارش، دبی، دبی یک روز قبل و میانگین دبی و دبی یک روز قبل هم چنین داده خروجی رسوب معلق در بازه زمانی 18 ساله (سال های 79-80 تا 96-97) استفاده شد. با استفاده از داده های در دسترس منحنی تداوم جریان و منحنی سنجه رسوب را به دست آورده سپس با استفاده از داده های دبی برای هر ایستگاه حد تعیین دوره کم آبی و دوره پرآبی مشخص شد، سپس رسوب معلق به دو دوره رسوب معلق کم آبی و پرآبی تقسیم شد، سپس مدل سازی داده ها (70 درصد داده های آموزش و 30 درصد داده های آزمایش) با استفاده از مدل های ذکر شده انجام شد. نتایج نشان داد باتوجه به معیارهای ارزیابی مدل GP با دو کرنل PUK و RBF در دوره کم آبی و پرآبی عملکرد بهتری را نسبت به سایر مدل ها (RF, RepTree, M5P) داشته است. با توجه به نتایج بخش آزمایش مدل GP-PUK بهترین نتیجه را به ما داده است که به ترتیب ضریب همبستگی، ریشه میانگین مربعات خطا و میانگین خطای مطلق در ایستگاه بهرام جو 0.55، 0.42 و 0.27، هم چنین ایستگاه چم انجیر 0.74، 0.18 و 0.80، در ایستگاه سراب صیدعلی 0.71، 0.16 و 0.07 و در آخر ایستگاه کاکارضا 0.73، 0.24 و 0.15 به دست آمده است. در مجموع مدل GP-PUK به عنوان مدل برتر، قدرت بالاتری برای مدل سازی همه ایستگاه ها در رسوب معلق دوره پرآبی و کم آبی در بخش آزمایش بوده است. لذا با توجه به نتایج به دست آمده از این پژوهش می توان از این مدل های بهینه برای صرفه جویی در هزینه و زمان برای بحث حفاظت آب و خاک و تخمین رسوب معلق خروجی از حوزه های آبخیز استفاده کرد. هم چنین می توان برای اجرای مدیریت بهتر در رابطه با کمیت و کیفیت آب های سطحی، این مدل ها برای تخمین رسوبات معلق ایستگاه های مجاور فاقد آمار دارای شرایط زمین ساختی و هیدرولوژیکی یکسان در سطح منطقه مورد استفاده قرار گیرند و نتایج قابل اعتمادی در رابطه با رسوب معلق ارایه دهند.
کلید واژگان: استان لرستان, حوضه کرخه, منحنی تداوم جریان, جنگل تصادفی, فرآیند گوسیIntroductionSediment that moves with water is called suspended sediment, and the amount of suspended sediment material that passes through a river section in a certain period of time is called suspended load. The suspended sediment load (SSL) of a watershed, which passes through a certain section of the river, depends mainly on the climatic characteristics, the characteristics of the watershed and the capacity of carrying sedimentary materials. Actully Suspended sediment transport in the river is a function of meteorological and hydrological parameters as a complicated process. The input suspended load is one of the important and influencing factors on the amount of sediment input to reservoirs of dams and lakes. Determining the amount of sediment carried by rivers is important in many aspects. The calculation of suspended load is very important because of various reasons, one of the most important reasons is the role of suspended sediment load in the quantitative and qualitative management of surface water resources. Therefore, the distribution and transportation of suspended sediment load (SSL) in rivers have a significant effect on the water resource management, design of hydraulic structures, river morphology, water quality, and aquatic ecosystems. In fact, accurate and reliable modeling of suspended sediment load (SSL) is very important for planning, managing, and designing of river systems and water resource structures. In addition, the determination of dry and wet periods is very important in studies related to water resources management, especially in arid and semi-arid regions.
Materials and MethodsTo campare the result of the proposed models’ performance, the Cham Anjir, Bahram Jo, Kaka Reza and Sarab Syed Ali hydrometry stations in Khorramabad, Biranshahr and Alashtar sub-watersheds (a part of Kashkan watershed) in western of Iran, is used as a case study area. The geographic coordinates of the Cham Anjir, Bahram Jo, Kaka Reza and Sarab Syed Ali are 48° 15 '34" E 33° 26' 55" N, 48° 17' 45"E 33° 34' 8" N, 48° 13' 51" E 33° 43' 39" N and 48° 12' 14" E 33° 44' 55" N, respectively. The studied area has a semiarid climate with a mean annual rainfall Less than 500 mm. The studied area has a maximum elevation of 3578 m in Alashtar watershed and the minimum elevation of 1158 m in khorramAbad watershed. Most parts of the studied sub-watersheds are rangeland, while forest, dry farming, and irrigation lands are in considerable quantities. The surface lithology in the KhorramAbad, Alashtar and Biranshahr watersheds are covered by the Eocene, Quaternary, Cretaceous, Miocene, Oligocene, Paleocene, and Pliocene geologic formations.Predicting suspended sediment load (SSL) in water resource management requires efficient and reliable predicted models. The present study was carried out for the modeling of Suspended sediment load by learning algorithms in low and high discharge periods. In this study, five soft computing techniques, GP-PUK, GP-RBF, M5P, REEP Tree and RF were used to predict the SSL in Cham Anjir, Bahram Jo, Kaka Reza and Sarab Syed Ali hydrometry stations in Khorramabad, Biranshahr and Alashtar sub-watersheds. Total data set consists of rain, discharge and suspended sediment load (in a period of 18 years from 2000 to 2018). of three sub-watersheds out of which 70% data used to train the model and 30% data were used to test the model. Finally, the models’ accuracy was assessed using three performance evaluation parameters, which were Correlation Coefficient (C.C.), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Maximum Absolute Error (MAE). Finally, a sensitivity investigation was executed to catch the best noteworthy input parameter during the modeling process. This process was carried out by eliminating the one input parameter and noted the output in terms of RMSE and C.C.
Results and DiscussionThe obtained results suggest that the Gaussian Process (GP) model with two PUK and RBF kernels is more accurate to estimate the suspended sediment load (SSL) compared to the M5P, ReepTree and Random Forest (RF) models for the given study area. According to the results of the test part of the GP-PUK model, it has given us the best result, which are the correlation coefficient, the root mean square error and the mean absolute error in Bahram Jo station (0.55, 0.42, and 0.27), Cham Anjir station (0.74, 018, and 0.08), Sarab Seyed Ali station (0.71, 016, and 0.07) and Kakareza station (0.71, 0.24, and 0.15), respectively. In general, the Gaussian Process-PUK model, is the powerful model for the prediction of suspended sediment load (SSL) in low and high discharge periods. Therefore, according to the obtained results from this research, these optimal models can be used to costly and time-consuming tasks of the estimation of suspended sediment load from river. Also, these models can be used to estimate the suspended sediments load of nearby rivers by/without hydrometry station for the management of the quantity and quality of surface water. Also, sensitivity analysis suggests that in Cham Anjir, Bahram Jo and Sarab Syed Ali hydrometry stations and rain in Kaka Reza hydrometry station, are the most significant parameters in estimation/prediction of SSL.
ConclusionThe present study focused on the development of a GP-PUK, GP-RBF, M5P, REEP Tree and Random forest (RF) models to estimate the suspended sediment load. For this purpose, the hydrometry and hydroclimatology data of the Bahram Jo, Cham Anjir, Sarab Syed Ali and Kaka Reza stations in Khorramabad, Alashtar and Biranshahr sub-watersheds composed of Suspended Sedimend Load (SSL), discharge, and rainfall data were used. In general, The major conclusions of the study are as follows: Among those models with the highest performance, the GP-PUK has the highest performance in both testing and training phases. -The GP-PUK predicted data are closer to observational data compared with the other model’s output data. Besides, the GP-PUK is the nearest predicted model with observational data.The GP-PUK model is one of the most extensively used data driven models in the erosion and sediment literature, while the usages of other data-driven models are comparatively lesser. Also, the structure of the GP-PUK is very simple and very less time consumable. Thus, the GP-PUK model can be useful in the Suspended Sediment Load (SSL) modeling not only foraccuracy but also for its time-saving nature and simple structure compared with other models.
Keywords: Flow Duration Curve (FDC), gaussian process, Karkhe Watershed, Lorestan province, Random Forest -
مجله پژوهش آب ایران، پیاپی 40 (بهار 1400)، صص 163 -171
تامین و تخصیص حقابههای محیطزیستی رودخانهها برای حفاظت از اکوسیستم منابع آب و اکوسیستمهای وابسته باید بهعنوان ضرورت در مدیریت پایدار منابع آب کشور در نظر گرفته شود. در این پژوهش، در یک دوره44 ساله (از 1970 تا 2013)، جریان محیطزیستی رودخانه بالیخلوچای بررسی شد. همچنین، با استفاده از نرمافزار IHA، تغییرات هیدرولوژیکی و محیطزیستی ناشی از احداث و بهرهبرداری از سد یامچی بررسی شد. نتایج نشان داد با استفاده از روش تنانت و برای حفاظت از رژیم جریان رودخانه در محدودهبهینه، برای تمام ماههای سال به جریانی در محدوده 1/96 تا 3/27 مترمکعب بر ثانیه نیاز است. روش تسمن برای حفاظت از اکوسیستمهای رودخانهای، جریانی معادل 1/31 مترمکعب بر ثانیه را تخمین زده است. روش تنانت، مقدار جریان محیط زیستی را کمتر از Q75 تخمین زده است. نتایج روش منحنی تداوم جریان، نشاندهندهتامین دبی 2/95 و 2/46 مترمکعب بر ثانیه بهترتیب برای حفاظت از رودخانه در شرایط مناسب و شرایط نسبتا مناسب بود. میزان تاثیر احداث سد یامچی بر پارامترهای هیدرولوژیکی به میزان 61/38 درصد با درجه تغییرات متوسط بود. همچنین، با وجود سد یامچی، پارامترهای محیطزیستی به میزان 51/6 درصد تغییر یافت.
کلید واژگان: جریان محیط زیستی, تنانت, تسمن, منحنی تداوم جریان, نرم افزار IHAThere are various methods for assessing and regulating flow in order to protect the environment. In total, 207 methods have been identified for determining the environmental flow of rivers in 44 countries around the world, which can be classified into four general methods, including the hydrological method, hydraulic rating, habitat simulation, and holistic methodologies. Among these methods, the hydrological method has been the most used due to its ease of use, access to data and short calculation time. The aim of this study is to determine the environmental flow of Balikhluchay river in Ardabil, using Tennant, Tasman and flow continuity methods. Also, the effects of Yamchi dam construction on environmental and hydrological flow in downstream of the river were investigated and analyzed using IHA software. To achieve the objectives of the present study, some hydrological methods have been used. The input data in these methods is the daily runoff data of the Pole Almas station. The research stages are based on two main steps of calculating the river's environmental flow from 1970 to 2013 without considering the Yamchi dam and applying the Tennant, Tessman and Flow duration curve methods in different months of the year. According to the Tennant criteria, values of 10, 30 and 60% of the mean annual flows, respectively, are allocated as minimum flows, for Short-term survival of fish, maintaining relatively good survival status and maintaining suitable habitat. In Tessman method, if the 40% of mean annual flow was greater than the mean monthly flow, then the average monthly flow would be considered as the minimum monthly flow, otherwise, 40% of mean annual flow would be considered as the minimum monthly flow. The flow duration curves, by presenting the relationship between the amount and frequency of the river flow, show the full range of river discharges, from drought to flood events. The flow duration curves include information on river water planning, drinking use, or construction of diversion dams. In this method, the daily average data is first sorted in descending order. The next step is to investigate and analyze the effects of the Yamchi dam construction (before and after the dam construction in 2004) on environmental and hydrological downstream flows of the river using IHA software. The results showed that the Tennant method calculates the river flow between 1.96 to 3.27 m3/s to keep the river flow regime at the optimum range for all months of the year, while Tessmann method calculates 1.31 m3/s. The results of the FDC indicate that for the protection of the river in suitable and relatively suitable conditions, the flow rate of 2.95 and 2.46 m3/s was required, respectively. The results of the flow duration curve method can be useful to simulate the historical flow regime to maintain good or moderate environmental conditions and to provide a management model for the protection of the Balikhluchay river as well as early planning. The flow duration curve method estimated the environmental flow values more than other methods. The Tenntant method also estimates the environmental flow values less than the other two methods. In all months of the year, the Tenant method estimates the amount of environmental flow less than the Q75. In some months, Tasman method has estimated the amount of environmental flow less than the Q75 and in some months more than the Q75. The results of the periodicity and continuity of the pulsating behavior of the Balikhluchay river in low and high water periods, showed that before and after the construction of Yamchi dam, the duration of low-flow pulse has little hydrological change. However, the hydrological change degree of the wetness period pulse in terms of frequency and continuity is moderate and high, respectively. Changing these parameters can cause the movement of organic and food materials between the river and floodplain, the frequency and severity of soil moisture stress for plants, the frequency and duration of plant oxygen-free activities stress, and the effect on substrate transport, channel sediment texture and duration of disturbance. The intensity of flow decrease and increase in the period after the dam construction has had moderate changes. Generally, it was found that the dam’s operation has influenced downstream hydrological and environmental parameters. The extent of these effects on hydrological parameters such as magnitude of monthly water conditions, magnitude and duration of annual extreme water conditions, timing of annual extreme water conditions, and frequency and duration of high and low pulses status were 61.38% with moderate change degree. Also, despite the dam, 51.6% of the environmental parameters such as monthly low flows, extreme low flows, small floods and large floods have changed.
Keywords: Environmental flow, Tennant, Tessman, Flow duration curve, IHA software -
سابقه و هدف
پایش و ارزیابی خشکسالی هیدرولوژیک به دلیل وقوع مکرر آن در حوزه های مختلف آبریز در ایران و به منظور پیشگیری و مدیریت بحران ناشی از آن به یک ضرورت بدل شده است. در اغلب مطالعات انجام گرفته از شاخص های خشکسالی به منظور بررسی آن استفاده شده است. شاخص های خشکسالی مانند شاخص خشکسالی رودخانه ای (SDI)، با استفاده از محاسبات آماری بر داده های جریان رودخانه در نهایت منجر به یک عدد می گردد که توانایی بررسی و تحلیل کامل خشکسالی در منطقه مورد مطالعه را ندارد. جریان کم آبی یا جریان های حداقل رودخانه ای (Low Flow) از مهمترین شاخص های خشکسالی هستند که با استفاده از معیارهای مختلف آن می توان به شناخت جامعی از وضعیت خشکسالی هیدرولوژیک در منطقه دست پیدا کرد. در اغلب مطالعات انجام شده از ویژگی های کمبود یا تحلیل فراوانی جریان کم آبی استفاده شده است. استفاده از شاخص های مختلف جریان کم آبی به منظور شناخت جنبه های مختلف خشکسالی و مدیریت آن در رودخانه ها ضروری به نظر می رسد. لذا هدف این تحقیق مطالعه و تحلیل جامع خشکسالی هیدرولوژیک رودخانه ارمند با استفاده از تمامی شاخص های جریان کم آبی شامل شاخص های منحنی تداوم جریان، ویژگی های کمبود، تحلیل فراوانی جریان کم آبی و شاخص جریان پایه می باشد که با استفاده از آنها می توان مشخصاتی همچون دوره های خشک و تر، مقدار جریان در زمان خشکسالی، آستانه خشکسالی، طول مدت خشکسالی، حجم و شدت کمبود جریان و فراوانی وقوع جریان های کم را تعیین نمود. همچنین در این مطالعه مقدار جریان زیست محیطی رودخانه محاسبه و مورد تحلیل قرار گرفت.
مواد و روش هاحوزه آبریز رودخانه ارمند با مساحت 9961 کیلومتر مربع واقع در استان چهارمحال وبختیاری به عنوان منطقه مورد مطالعه انتخاب و از آمار روزانه جریان مربوط به ایستگاه آبسنجی ارمند از سال 1336 تا 1392 استفاده گردید. ابتدا با ترسیم منحنی تداوم جریان، سه شاخص کم آبی Q70،Q90 وQ95 همچنین، وضعیت رودخانه شامل دوره های ترسالی، نرمال و خشکسالی تعیین گردید. سپس، حداقل جریان زیست محیطی رودخانه بر اساس دو شاخص Q75 و Q90 همچنین خصوصیات کمبود با استفاده از حد آستانه Q70 محاسبه شد. به منظور برآورد دوره بازگشت سری کم آبی (AM7)، تابع توزیع گامای دو پارامتری مناسب تشخیص داده شد. در نهایت شاخص جریان پایه با روش فیلتر دیجیتال بازگشتی در مقیاس های زمانی مختلف محاسبه گردید.
یافته هابر اساس نتایج، رودخانه ارمند طی 28، 22 و 14 سال (از 57 سال دوره آماری) به ترتیب دارای جریان کمتر از Q70،Q90 وQ95 (m3/s45، 32 و 27) می باشد. با توجه به شیب ملایم منحنی تداوم جریان حوزه، همچنین مقدار بالای شاخص BFI (0/95) مشخص شد که آبهای زیرزمینی مشارکت بالایی در جریان رودخانه دارند. دوره خشک در این رودخانه از زمانی آغاز می شود که جریان به کمتر از 45 متر مکعب بر ثانیه (آستانه Q70) برسد. نتایج نشان داد که حجم و شدت کمبود طی 50 سال اخیر افزایش یافته است. بر اساس تحلیل فراوانی جریان کم، در دوره بازگشت های 2، 5، 10، 20، 50 و 100 سال، جریان کم آبی به ترتیب برابر با 34/26، 26/8، 23، 21، 1/19 و 17 متر مکعب بر ثانیه می باشد. مقایسه مقادیر مذکور با حداقل جریان زیست محیطی نشان داد که جریان رودخانه به طور متوسط هر دو سال یکبار از حداقل جریان زیست محیطی خود کمتر می شود.
نتیجه گیریعلیرغم وجود جریان پایدار در رودخانه ارمند (به دلیل رژیم برفی-بارانی منطقه، توانایی بالای حوضه در ذخیره آب و تخلیه آن در فصل خشک) دوره های خشک با شدت های متفاوت طی 57 سال گذشته بوقوع پیوسته است. همچنین شدت خشکسالی با توجه به افزایش حجم کمبود جریان طی سال های اخیر، افزایش یافته است و در صورت ادامه این روند، در آینده شدت و فراوانی وقوع خشکسالی بیشتر و جریان کلی رودخانه کاهش خواهد یافت.
کلید واژگان: جریان کم آبی, منحنی تداوم جریان, حداقل جریان زیست محیطی, خصوصیات کمبود, رودخانه ارمندBackground and objectivesMonitoring and evaluation of hydrological drought has become a necessity due to its frequent occurrence in various basins of Iran, and in order to prevent and manage the resulting crisis. In most studies, drought indices have been used to investigate it. Drought indices like Streamflow Drought Index, using statistical calculations on river flow data, ultimately leads to a number that does not have the ability to completely investigate and analyze drought in the studied area. Low flow or minimum river flow is one of the most important drought indices that using different criteria can get a comprehensive understanding of the hydrological drought situation in the region. In most studies, deficit characteristics or low flow frequency analysis have been used. Using different low flow indices is necessary to recognize different aspects of drought and its management. Therefore, the aim of this research was to study hydrological drought of Armand river using all of the low flow indices including flow duration curve, deficit characteristics, low flow frequency analysis and base flow index, which can be used to determine characteristics such as dry and wet periods, amount of flow during drought, drought threshold, duration of drought, volume and intensity deficit and frequency of low flows. Also, in this study, the environmental flow of river was calculated and analyzed.
Materials and methodsThe Armand River basin with 9961 Km2 area located in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province was selected as the study area and the daily flow statistics of the Armand hydrometric station were used from 1957 to 2013. First, by plotting the flow duration curve, three low flow indices Q70, Q90 and Q95 also, the river status including wet, normal and drought periods was determined. Then, the minimum environmental flow was calculated based on the two indices Q75 and Q90, and the deficit characteristics using the threshold level Q70. In order to estimate the return period of low flow series (AM7), a suitable two-parameter gamma distribution function was considered appropriate. Finally, the base flow index was calculated using recursive digital filter method in different time scales.
ResultsBased on the results, the Armand River in 28, 22 and 14 years (from 57 years of statistical period) has a flow of less than Q70, Q90 and Q95, respectively (45, 32 and 27 m3/s). Due to the gentle slope of the flow duration curve of basin, also the high value of the BFI index (0.95), it was concluded that groundwater had a high participation in the river flow. The dry period in this river begins when the flow reaches less than 45 m3/s (the threshold level Q70). The results showed that the deficit volume and intensity increased over the past 50 years. Based on the frequency analysis of low flow, in the return periods of 2, 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100 years, the low flow was 34.26, 26.8, 23.1, 21.1, 19.1 and 17 m3/s. Comparison of these values with the minimum environmental flow showed that the river flow becomes less than its minimum environmental flow on average every two years.
ConclusionDespite the sustained flow in the Armand River (due to the snow-rainy regime of the region, the ability of the basin to save water and drain it during the dry season), the dry periods with different intensities occurred over the past 57 years. Also, the severity of drought has increased due to the increase in the volume deficit of the river in recent years, and if this continues in the future, the severity and frequency of the drought occurrence will increase and the overall flow of the river will decrease.
Keywords: Low flow, Flow duration curve, Minimum environmental flow, Deficit characteristics, Armand River -
منحنی تداوم جریان، برای طرح های مدیریت منابع آب، از قبیل طراحی سدها، نیروگاه های برق آبی، عملیات آبخیزداری، ارزیابی خطر خشک سالی، و بررسی سلامت زیست بوم رودخانه، اهمیت فراوانی دارد و در طرح های هیدرولوژیکی رودخانه ها در نظر گرفته شود. هدف این مطالعه، بررسی کارآیی روش منحنی های تداوم جریان در صحت سنجی مدل احتساب کننده رطوبت خاک (HMS SMA) با مقیاس هایزمانی سالانه، نیم سالانه، فصلی و ماهانه است تا میزان تاثیر رطوبت خاک در ایجاد رواناب در حوضه آبخیز زولاچای تعیین شود. در این تحقیق پس از مدل سازی فرم هندسی حوضه آبخیز زولاچای در الحاقیه HEC-GeoHMS، پارامترهای مدل احتساب کننده رطوبت خاک تخمین زده شد و سپس شبیه سازی بارش- رواناب در سایر مقیاس های زمانی انجام گرفت. با بررسی منحنی های تداوم جریان در مقیاس های زمانی مختلف با مدلHMS SMA می توان نتیجه گرفت که منحنی های تداوم جریان در مقیاس زمانی ماهانه، دقیق تر از مقیاس زمانی سالانه، نیم سالانه و فصلی عمل می کند. این نتایج، کارآیی دقیق تر مقیاس زمانی ماهانه نسبت به سایر مقیاس های زمانی در شبیه سازی بارش- رواناب را تائید می نماید.کلید واژگان: تحلیل حساسیت, صحت سنجی, منحنی تداوم جریان, مدل احتساب کننده رطوبت خاک, مدل های هیدرولوژیکیThe flow-duration curve, has a great importance in design of dams, hydroelectric powers plants, watershed operations, drought risk assessment and checking the river ecosystems health, so it is better to be employed in the rivers hydrological plans. The aim of this study is to evaluate the efficiency of flow duration curves for verification of the Soil Moisture Accounting (SMA) model, in different time scales such as annual, semi-annual, seasonal and monthly modes to determine the effect of soil moisture on runoff generation in the Zola-Chay watershed. In this study, after the Zola-Chay watershed geometrical modeling using HEC-GeoHMS, soil moisture accounting model parameters were estimated and then rainfall-runoff simulation was done in different time scales. By examining flow-duration curves in different time scales with SMA model, it could be concluded that the flow-duration curves in the monthly time scale, were more accurate than the annual, semi-annual and seasonal time scales. These results endorsed the more accurate performance of monthly time scale compared with other time scales in rainfallrunoff simulation.Keywords: Flow, duration curve, Hydrological models, Sensitivity analysis, Soil moisture accounting model, Verification
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با توجه به اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر منابع آب و هیدرولوژی، تغییرات جریان کم آبی به عنوان بخش مهمی از چرخه آب، مورد توجه محققین، مدیران و استفاده کنندگاه از آب در زمینه های مختلف می باشد. رشد جمعیت و کاهش سرانه آب، محدودیت منابع آبی تجدیدپذیر، همچنین وقوع خشکسالی های پر تکرار در دهه های اخیر در نقاط مختلف جهان، اهمیت پیش بینی وضعیت جریان رودخانه را خصوصا در فصول خشک سال به منظور مدیریت منابع آبی منطقه ضروری می سازد. شاخص های مختلفی به منظور سنجش جریان کم آبی یک منطقه وجود دارند. در این تحقیق اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر سه شاخص Q70، Q90 و Q95 مستخرج از منحنی تداوم جریان در حوزه آبریز رودخانه سزار در دوره آتی 2040-2011 مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. به منظور لحاظ کردن عدم قطعیت مدل های AOGCM در تولید سناریوهای اقلیمی از 10 مدل گردش عمومی جو استفاده و تاثیر سناریوهای مذکور در وضعیت جریان رودخانه، پس از ریزمقیاس نمایی توسط مدل LARS-WG، با استفاده از مدل مفهومی بارش-رواناب IHACRES مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفت. با توجه به نتایج، تغییرات Q70 از 26- درصد تا 190 درصد، Q90 از 54- درصد تا 221 درصد و Q95 از 64- درصد تا 332 درصد در زیرحوضه های مختلف میباشد. نتایج نشان از افزایش نسبی مقادیر شاخص های کم آبی در زیرحوضه های مورد مطالعه در دوره آتی مورد مطالعه دارد.کلید واژگان: تحلیل فراوانی, مدل گردش عمومی جو, مدل LARS, WG, منحنی تداوم جریان, ویژگی های کمبودIntroductionDue to the effects of climate change on water resources and hydrology, Changes in low flow as an important part of the water cycle, is of interest to researchers, water managers and users in various fields. Changes in characteristics of low flows affected by climate change may have important effects on various aspects of socioeconomic , environmental, water resources and governmental planning. There are several indices to assess the low flows. The used low flow indices in this research for assessing climate change impacts, is include the extracted indices from flow duration curve (Q70, Q90 and Q95), due to the importance of these indices in understanding and assessing the status of river flow in dry seasons that was investigated in Tang Panj Sezar basin in the west of Iran.Materials And MethodsIn this paper, the Tang Panj Sezar basin with an area of 9410 km2 was divided into 6 smaller sub catchments and the changes of low flow indices were studied in each of the sub catchments. In order to consider the effects of climate change on low flow, scenarios of temperature and precipitation using 10 atmospheric general circulation models (to investigate the uncertainty of GCMs) for both the baseline (1971-2000) and future (2011-2040) under A2 emission scenario was prepared. These scenarios, due to large spatial scale need to downscaling. Therefore, LARS-WG stochastic weather generator model was used. In order to consider the effects of climate change on low flows in the future, a hydrologic model is required to simulate daily flow for 2011-2040. The IHACRES rainfall-runoff model was used for this purpose . After simulation of daily flow using IHACRES, with two time series of daily flow for the observation and future period in each of the sub catchment, the low flow indices were compared.
ResultsDiscussionAccording to results, across the whole year, the monthly temperature in the future period has increased while rainfall scenarios show different variations for different months, also within a month for different GCMs. Based on the results of low flow indices, in most cases, the three indices of Q70, Q90, and Q95 will show incremental changes in the future compared to the past. Also, the domain simulation by 10 GCMs for all three indices is maximum in Tang Panj Sezar and less for other sub catchments, which is related to better performance of IHACRES model in smaller sub catchments. In order to investigate the uncertainty of type changes in different indices in every sub catchment, changes in any of the indices were considered based on the median of GCMs. To achieve the correct type of changes in low flow indices, the amount of error in a simulation of the indices of IHACRES rainfall-runoff model should also be taken into consideration. Therefore, considering the error, the three indices Q70, Q90 and Q95 in all sub catchments (except for Tang Panj Sezar) will have the relative increase in the future period. The improvement of low flow state in the future period is related to the changes occurred in the state of climate scenarios. As the results indicated, most often, there is an increase in rainfall in dry seasons. Also, in different months of the wet season wet season, if the result of changes in quantity of rainfall is incremental, it can lead to an increase in river flow through groundwater recharge. On the other hand due to the limestone and karst forms in most of the basin area, water storage ability and increase the amount of river flow during low water season in this area is expected. The study on rainfall quantity in Tang Panj Sezar sub catchment also indicated that, there will be no significant increase or decrease in the quantity of rainfall in the dry season. Thus, it is expected that there will not be significant changes in low flow indices. In this sub catchment, changes in various low flow indices do not match perfectly, so more difficult to obtain reliable results. With regard to incremental changes of Q95, low flow index with less uncertainty, as well as improving indices of low flow in other sub-basins, it is possible to predict a relatively better state for low flow indices of Tang Panj Sezar in the future period.ConclusionUsing temperature and rainfall scenarios to simulate river flow in the future, a relative increase of all three low flow indices Q70, Q90 and Q95 was predicted compared with the past period. Although all three of mentioned indices show the amount of low flow in the dry season, it is recommended that only two indices of Q90 and Q95 to assess the effects of climate change be considered. Q90 and Q95 indices are more suitable indices than Q70 for studying the effects of climate change on low flow state. These two indices indicate less quantity of flow in dry seasons; therefore, the changes of the two indices are more important in identifying the low flow state. However, there is less uncertainty in the estimation of the two Q90 and Q95 indices than Q70.Keywords: Climate change, Flow duration curve, LARES, WG model, Low flow, Tang Panj Sezar -
تحلیل منطقه ای منحنی تداوم جریان برای زیر حوضه های فاقد آمار (مطالعه موردی: حوضه آبخیز دریاچه نمک)
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