جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه « مدل سازی پراکنش گونه » در نشریات گروه « اکولوژی »

The reduction of biodiversity and its adverse effects on plant and animal species is one of the consequences of global warming.  The wide spread of non-native species has inherent negative effects on other species and ecosystems and may pose a double and more serious threat to biodiversity in the future due to climate change. Knowing the future distribution of these species can be used for biodiversity conservation. In the current study, the distribution of non-native stone moroko fish was predicted under two optimistic and pessimistic (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5) scenarios for the years 2050 and 2080 by the MaxEnt model. The results showed that the performance of the model in predicting species distribution was excellent (0.988) based on the Area Under the Curve (AUC) criterion. In addition, it is predicted that the distribution of the species is likely to increase significantly (more than 100%) in all years and optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. Therefore, managers and decision-makers should consider the significant expansion of this species in the future as well as, its potential effects on biodiversity and take necessary and appropriate management actions.

The Solanaceae family with 49 species of 10 genera is one of the important nutritional, economical, medicinal and ornamental families in which six genera of them are classified in the group of wild relatives. Predicting the effect of climate change on the distribution of plant species is important for their management and conservation. In this study, the effects of climate change on this family was investigated with a conservation approach, using Species Distribution Modeling (SDM). Future spatial distribution of this family was predicted by MaxEnt model under optimistic (RCP2.6) and pessimistic (RCP8.5) scenarios for the year 2050 and 2080 in R software. In general, the performance of the model for different species was good or excellent based on the area under the curve index (AUC ≥ 0.8), showing high statistical reliability of the distribution modeling. Predicting the distribution of all species in the face of climate change and under various future scenarios showed both decrease in the current original habitats and increase in new habitats. However, the ratio of the increase and decrease was different in various species. In Atropa acuminate, Solanum surratense, Datura stramonium, Hyoscyamus niger, Hyoscyamus reticulatus, Physalis alkekengi and Solanum dulcamara the ratio of decrease was more than increase, implying the negative effects of climate change on these species and may cause species extinction. However, the ratio of increase was more than decrease in Datura innoxia,Physalis divaricate,Solanum alatum and Withania somnifera, showing a positive effect and climate change may  cause species expansion.