جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه "esm" در نشریات گروه "اکولوژی"

This research aims to investigate the impact of climate change based on the sixth report (CMIP) under two scenarios SSP3_7.0 and SSP5_8.5 on forecasting temperature, wind speed, evaporation-transpiration (ET), and the amount of extractable water (Q) by two CNRM models and ESM was at 16 meteorological stations during the future period of 2025-2044 and 2045-2064. The statistical analysis results showed that the impact of climate change under two scenarios on temperature, ET and Q was significant. CNRM model performed better than ESM in temperature estimation (CC=0.96-0.98). From examining the results of the CNRM model, the maximum and minimum RMSE of temperature in Khormadreh and Zanjan stations were 8.30 and -0.5 , respectively; Also, the RMSE value of wind speed fluctuated between 0.82-0.5 m.s-1. The examination of ESM model showed the fluctuation of RMSE between 2.55-8.45  in temperature parameter and 0.62-0.68 meters per second in wind speed. The maximum and minimum values of Q and ET in the seasonal survey occurred in summer and winter, respectively. Both models had poor performance in predicting wind speed. The maximum ET under the SSP5_8.5 scenario by the CNRM model (first period) at Khorramdare station is equal to 104.29 mm.month-1 and the minimum value by the ESM model (first period) under the SSP3_7.0 scenario at Firuzkoh station is equal to 25.60 mm.month-1 was estimated. The maximum Q under the SSP3_7.0 scenario by the ESM model (first period) at Malair station is equal to 20.70 Lit.day.m-2 and the minimum value by the CNRM model (second period) under the SSP3_7.0 scenario at the Astara station is equal to 0.3 Lit.day.m-2 were estimated.