جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه « مدل سازی پراکنش » در نشریات گروه « آبخیزداری، بیابان، محیط زیست، مرتع »

The present study aimed at preparing the potential distribution map and identifiying the environmental requirement of Prosopis farcta L. using tree-based and regression methods in the marginal rangeland of Niatak river in Sistan region. For this purpose, species presence data was recorded randomly. Environmental variables were prepared using field sampling and digital elevation model. In order to achieve the pseudo-absence points, first habitat modeling was performed using the domain model, then pseudo-absence points were prepared using the prediction map obtained from this method. Species distribution modelling was conducted using random forest (RF), classification and regression trees (CART) and generalized additive model (GAM). The accuracy of the models used was evaluated using the area under curve criterion. Result showed that the RF with area under curve 0.98 has the highest accuracy. Generalized additive models and classification and regression trees were ranked after RF. The highest and lowest values of kappa index were assigned to the RF with 0.75, and GAM with 0.43 Kappa value. Accordingly, the RF model is the most accurate model in predicting the potential habitat distribution. Analysis of the variable’s importance showed that in the studied scale, edafic factors and distance from the river have greater effect on species distribution than other factors. So that, in all models used, acidity and electrical conductivity were identified as the most important variables. In general, it is suggested that habitat development plans for Prosopis farcta should be planned in the central and marginal parts of the Niatek river due to better suitability of these regions for species distribution.

Among the various species of mammals, three guilds of the Bovidae and Cervidae family, including red deer – roe deer, goitered gazelle – chinkara, and wild goat – mouflon have always been considered as target species in conservation programs. However the impacts of climate change on the effectivness of the conservation areas (CAs) of Iran is poorly understood. The current research using Speceis Distribution Model (SDM) based on MaxEnt model aims at identifying suitable habitats and hotspot areas for these species in the current time and evaluate the impact of climate changes by 2050. Our results showed that all models obtained AUC > 0.8 revealing proper predictive performances. The comparison of the area of suitable habitats for the current time and 2050 showed that all species, except for chinkara and goitered gazelle, will face a reduction in the area of suitable habitats in the future. Among the speceis roe deer and red deer will experience the greatest habitat loss, 70% and 61%, respectively. The evaluation of the effectiveness of the CAs to cover hotspot areas, Class 4 and Class 5 of speceis richness, revealed that only 12% and 18% of hotspots will be covered by the conservation network in the current time and 2050, respectively. Therfore, the present study by identifying hotspots of these species could be considered as an operative tools for the conservation planning of in the current time and future.