جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه « پیش بینی جمعیت » در نشریات گروه « پزشکی »

 It is unlikely that the population growth rate has stayed steady in recent years, given the present situation in Iran. There has been a slight rise in population growth over the past 60 years, according to birth, mortality, and census results from 1956 to 2016.

Mathematical modeling is a common element of computer programs used to predict population growth. This model was applied as a useful and instructive tool in the present research to predict Iran's population until 2041.

The standard mathematical modeling approach predicted the total population using the data from Iran's 1956–2016 census using different mathematical modeling methods. The descriptive population growth prediction model (exponential) outperformed the other techniques in terms of compatibility with historical population data. Furthermore, it proved to be highly effective and appropriate for projecting Iran's population in the future. For the year 2041, the following population estimates were projected: A total population of 113,215,189, a male population of 57,366,315, a female population of 55,848,874, an urban population of 83,786,814, a rural population of 29,428,375, and a total population of Iran exceeding 100 million people during the year 2031.

Combining the exponential and hyperbolic extrapolation models allows for the prediction that Iran's population will increase to 159,852,540 people by the year 2075, which is twice as many as that of the 2016 census. Moreover, it is also feasible to calculate the approximate total population that lived 100,000 years before the 1956 census using mathematical modeling.

Population has always been considered as one of the most fundamental issues in policy-making and futuristic planning. Population futures research is also a process for making better decisions and planning by looking at distant horizons, futures that are broadly related to values, beliefs, and patterns of behavior. One of the major demographic issues, mainly in the world, is the issue of population aging and its consequences. As a result, the purpose of the present study was to determine and study the future study of the elderly population of Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad province up to 2050 and their health costs.

In the present descriptive study conducted in 2019, a documentary study of the general census data of Iran Statistics Center in 2016 based on possible scenarios of fertility, migration and death of Mir using a combined method of forecasting was used. Population was analyzed in Spectrum and Mortpak demographic software and the aging status of the province's population up to 2050 horizon was analyzed.

Based on the probabilistic scenario calculations (total fertility 1/2), important population indicators such as number of elderly, aging index and dependence ratio of elderly population in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad province for 2050 were estimated at 259017 people, 81.92 and 25.8, respectively. Another finding of the research indicated that from 2016 to 2050, the index of dependency ratio of the elderly will increase relatively much. Accordingly, from 6.8% in 2016 to 26.6% (low growth), 25.8% (medium growth), 25.5% (high growth). The sex ratio of the elderly in the province will reach 95 in 2050, which indicated that the elderly population of the province is moving towards femininity. Life expectancy for the elderly at the age of 60 is also projected at 2330, equal to 23 years. This index has increased significantly compared to 2016. Another finding of the present study revealed that the average direct cost of health is higher for men until about 2025, and after that, due to the increase in older women, the cost of women's health is higher.

Considering the rapid pace of declining fertility in Iran over the last two decades, it is predicted that the movement towards population aging will accelerate and based on the observed trends in fertility and mortality and a look at the most likely ways to change them in the future, the age structure was estimated. The population of Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad is getting older, in other words, the share of the population in the age group under 30 decreases and the share of the population over 30 increases, considering the age structure of the population It is necessary.