Assessment of Climate Change Impact on the Future Development of Apricot and Almond Species. (Case Study: Khorasan Razavi Province)

In this research, we used downscaled data from ECHO-G General Circulation Models and A1 scenario to investigate the climate change impacts on apricot and almond growth and development in the period between 2010-2039. The main concern is freezing occurrence especially spring coming late and winter heavy freezings that would be limitation factors for the growth. The results of this research showed that, in average, the light and heavy coming late freezing occurrences date will be stopped 13 and 7 days earlier from long term averaging respectively. The occurrence frequency and coming late freezings will also be decreased relative to long term average in the three station including Mashhad, Torbat-e Heydariyeh and Sabzevar. The mapping base on critical temperature occurrence data and phenological stages for apricot and almond in the future period showed that the vast regions of Khorasan Razavi province especially Torbat Heydariyeh will be fall in the to dangerous region. Based on the obtained results of this research, Chenaran, Mashhad and Neyshaboor that are the main producing area of apricot will also be located in the dangerous region.