Modeling the Interactive Future of Information Technology Based on the System's Dynamics Approach

One of the methods for firms to be successful in information technology industry is to reduce the probability of the failure by adopting flexible scenarios and developing strategies for the development. Among the current scenario-making methods is the uncertainty approach using Global Business Network (GBN) method. In GBN, each scenario is made out of the cross-impact of two or three driving forces that have a high associated uncertainty. On the other hand, each scenario has a series of variables that interact with each other and every tiny change in each of these variables would have a huge impact on other variables. This can be extremely important in the field of policy making. Thus, scenario modeling as a dynamic system can make decision makerscapable of realizing the future risks and opportunities. Using system dynamism approach, in this paper a dynamic model of a scenario in the field of communications, along with a pre-foresight plan will be offered. Then using Vensim software, we will study the effects of different components of this scenario on each other in five different situations in identifying the variables that have the strongest effect in the growth of the GDP. We also examine the effect of government’s budget on the IT infrastructure development and on the production of ICT equipment. Additionally we specify how the mentioned increase in the government's budget will affect the governmental supportive policies (loans and tax exemptions) or the investments of the private sector.