Identifying Key Factors Affecting Future of IRIB Organization A Cross-Impact Analysis Method

The present paper aims to propose a number of possible scenarios for IRIB within the time period up to 1404 (Iranian Calendar) using a model for identification of key factors affecting the organization future at national and international levels. Data presented in this paper include 47 factors obtained from a combinational methodology involving interviews with elites as well as Delphi Method. Main factors were determined and refined within two phases. Finally, 24 main trends were marked and their cross impacts were collected and then, the obtained data were analyzed using MicMac Software. Ultimately, six primary factors were determined as the key trends and drives having the most influence on the organization. Using the results, 18 scenarios are proposed for each one of these six factors, and the future status of such big complex organization as IRIB is simulated, hence a clear picture for organizational planning is depicted.