Estimated Number of Patients with HIV in Fars Province Using Capture-Recapture Method, 1990-2010

HIV is a potential risk in different countries around the world. Having detailed information of HIV positive patients is essential. The aim of this study was to estimate the number of infected individuals during a selected period of time.

We gathered the data from three sources including hospitals، voluntary counseling and testing center، and the prisons from 1990 to 2010. We identified common cases within the three resources using capture-recapture method. Eight models were presented using the log-linear method.

A total of 5167 HIV positive patients were identified. The number of male patients was 10 times more than females. Most of the patients aged 15 to 44 years old. The most recorded cases (3347) belonged to the in voluntary counseling and testing center. The lowest recorded cases belonged to the common cases of the prisons and hospitals. Annually، 550 more cases had been identified within the resources. The highest estimate belonged to the common cases of the three resources. The estimated number of HIV positive patients was about 18914 in Fars province.

Lack of proper coordination between health system sectors، along with the social issues such as stigma and discrimination of HIV positive patients are the most important reasons of weakness in the information systems. Providing high quality information is essential for HIV-infected patients and shoul d be the priority of the health policy.