Investigation the Bread Waste Reduction on the Iranian's Consumer's Welfare

This study attempts to provide a quantitative and economic framework for analyzing the impacts of reducing bread waste on production, consumption, trade as well as consumer's welfare. For this purpose, a partial equilibrium model of vertical markets was applied for wheat, flour and bread market. Statistics of production from agriculture ministry of agriculture as well as industry, mining and trade ministry, customs and central bank were gathered for analyzing the changes in consumer’s welfare from bread waste reduction in 2009. Results could efficiently reproduce actual quantities and market prices and so the validation of the applied model for scenario-building was confirmed. Then, the effects of reduction in total bread waste were examined for short and long-term horizon. The results showed that consumer's welfare decreases in short run as the total wastes decreases. While consumers and social welfare prosperity is possible in long-term. Also results showed that reforming the bread consumption pattern is associated with social disadvantages in short term and a minimum three-year program is required for changing it. So it is suggested that reforming bread consumption pattern should be considered as a medium-term or long-term policy among agricultural decision makers.