The Effects of Oil Shocks on Macroeconomic Indices in Iran (Structural Vector Error Correction Analysis)

The main objective of this study is to investigate the effects of oil shocks on GDP، prices level، money and exchange rates in Iran by using the structural vector error correction (SVEC) approach model covering the period 1980Q2-2010Q1. The findings of this study reveal that positive shock in oil real price has significant and positive effect on the real GDP in the short، medium and long. The impact of oil price shocks on domestic prices in the short، medium and long term is negative and significant، such as creating a positive shock to the real price of crude oil، reduce the domestic price. In addition، a positive shock to the real price of crude oil has the negative effect of the exchange rate in the short، medium and long term. However، the impact of oil price shock on the real exchange rate is permanent. Imports also will increase، due to the increase in wealth and demand for intermediate products. On the other hand، a positive shock to the real residual money in the short run cause to immediate increases in real out put.