Analysis of Existence of Asymmetric Positive & Negative Effects of Exchange Rate Fluctuations on Private Investment

The main goal of this study is survey and testing effects of asymmetric exchange rate fluctuations (in terms of positive and negative momentum) on private sector investment in Iran. At first, for exchange rate shocks, we used Hodrick-Prescott filter and positive and negative predicted and non-predicted shocks have been obtained. In addition, in specification of private sector investment equation, the effect of other variables such as gross domestic product (without oil) and public investment has been considered. For this purpose, using Auto Regressive Distributed Lag method (ARDL) and Error Correction Model (ECM), long run and short run relationship between private sector investment and factors affecting it during the years 1978 to 2010 have been evaluated. the results show that there is an asymmetric effects of exchange rate fluctuations on private sector investment but exchange rate positive shocks are more effective than negative shocks.