The test of prior and posterior relationships between agricultural growth and pressure on natural resources in Iran

Agriculture and natural resources have a mutual relationship with each other. The purpose of this study was to evaluate prior and posterior relationship between natural resources and agricultural development. We studied the relationship between the consumption of water and agricultural value added per capita income in order to obtain the prior relationship, and assessed the relationship between carbon dioxide emissions and per capita income of the Iran’s agricultural sector in order to obtain posterior relationship. To test these relationships, the Kuznets theory is used. Results showed that there was an inverted U relationship between per capita income and water consumption and carbon dioxide emissions. Also, spatial estimation showed that both water consumption and CO2 emissions in agricultural sector had a direct relationship with the value of these two variables in the neighboring areas. Since the environmental Kuznets curve can be applied to both water consumption and CO2 emissions in agricultural sector, development and growth of agriculture in the country can lead to controlled CO2 emissions and water consumption in this sector. Overall, in order to sustain this growth, the continued investment in increasing productivity of energy and water inputs in agricultural sector is recommended.