Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources and Agricultural Systems in Hashtgerd Plain, Using System Dynamics Approach

The population of Hashtgerd plain is rapidly on the growth, as a result of socio-economic developmental activities. This excessive population growth leads to increased groundwater withdrawal and water shortages especially in the agricultural sector. Furthermore, climate change can also exacerbate the water shortages in the coming decades. Thus, on assessment of water resources along with agricultural systems on this plain which requires a comprehensive and multidisciplinary approach is demanding. The objective followed in this study was to simulate the qualitative and quantitative impacts of climate change and population growth on water resources and agricultural systems in Hashtgerd plain, employing system dynamics model. HadCM3 model made use of to evaluate climate change impacts under B1 and A2 emission scenarios as well as a model based on system dynamics approach were developed by considering the interaction and feedbacks among sub-systems. The results revealed that, during the period of 2020 to 2039 the vulnerability index in agricultural sector increased from 0.1 to 0.27 under A2 emission scenario while it was fixed in either of the domestic or industrial sectors. It was finally concluded that the, agricultural sector will be more vulnerable to climate change and population growth in comparison with the other two sectors.