Spatial indicators effects on the forest fire potential in Zagros region

Forest fires frequently cause disturbances in vegetation cover worldwide. The aim of this study was to 1) assess the effects of spatial indicators on forest fire ignition and 2) to map the susceptibility to forest fires using Analectic Hierarchical Process (AHP) and Geographical Information System (GIS) in a portion of southern Zagros forests in Khuzestan province. Analysis of topography, land use, climate, habitat sensitivity as well as fuel index maps showed that 15.6, 59.5, 10.7, 20.6, and 35.7 percentages of the area is of very high to high potentials for forest fire ignition, respectively. Furthermore, the fire risk map indicated 8.6 % of this region to be very highly prone to wildfire. The results of cross-validation revealed that 9.6 and 67.3 percentages of the previous forest fires occurred in classes featuring very high and high fire vulnerability. In addition, GIS and AHP method were found to offer appropriate and efficient tools for management and mapping of forest fires in the Zagros forests of Iran.