Monitoring and prediction of spatial and temporal changes of landuse/ cover (Case study: Marave Tappeh region, Golestan)

In this research, land use changes in previous years and the possibility of predicting in the future using Markov chain model were investigated in the Maraveh Tappeh region of Golestan province. Therefore, using images of MSS, ETM+ and OLI sensors of LandSat satellite and using ancillary information, land use maps of 1986, 2000 and 2014 was provided and land use map of 2024 was predicted. According to the results, dense forest area decreased during the study period and with passing time but the area of agricultural land increased with the passage of time while the dense rangeland area decreased during the period 1984-2000. The annual growth rate of agricultural land has achieved 113.45 ha during the period 1984-2000 and this change value was obtained 91.27 ha for the period 2000-2014. The results of predicting changes in the time interval 2014-2028, showed it is possible that will be decreased semi-dense forest and dense rangelands and will be increased other land-use areas according to results of model predictions. The highest increase will be belonging to agricultural land use that will be increased to 25.89 ha per year. According to research findings, land-use changes are causing degradation of natural resource areas. However, in recent years, have taken effective actions to protect these areas, but more attention and protection of natural resources and environment in the Marave Tappeh region is essentially still.