Conditional probability, dry and wet periods weather forecasts recovery course using Markov chain model (Case study: Khuzestan province, Iran)
Author(s):
Abstract:
The aim of this study is the spatial analysis of rainfall in wet and dry months of the year in south-west Iran especially khouzestan. To this end, the model of Markov chain is used. In Markov chain, it is assumed that the climate has only two states: dry or wet. For instance, rainfall has only two states: it rains (1) or it will not rain (0).There is not a third state. The statistical years are not the same in this research and change from 10 to 50 years. Twenty stations are selected in Khuzestan and the surrounding provinces (synoptic and climatology).The three months of the summer are not included in calculations because the precipitation was zero or near zero. As the result of that, the reoccurrence of dry periods is generally longer than that of the wet ones. In the other words, dry periods last a long time in south-west Iran. Regarding area, long dry periods cover a wide area in the southwest while the area covered by short-term periods is less. When the length of time of periods increases to possibly 8 days, the changes are reversed and the longer time the probability of 8-day aridness takes, the more area it covers and the shorter time it takes, the less area it covers.
Keywords:
drought , Terry , Khuzestan , Markov chain
Language:
Persian
Published:
Journal of Extension and Development of Watershed Managment, Volume:3 Issue: 10, 2015
Page:
1
https://magiran.com/p1668008
دانلود و مطالعه متن این مقاله با یکی از روشهای زیر امکان پذیر است:
اشتراک شخصی
با عضویت و پرداخت آنلاین حق اشتراک یکساله به مبلغ 1,390,000ريال میتوانید 70 عنوان مطلب دانلود کنید!
اشتراک سازمانی
به کتابخانه دانشگاه یا محل کار خود پیشنهاد کنید تا اشتراک سازمانی این پایگاه را برای دسترسی نامحدود همه کاربران به متن مطالب تهیه نمایند!
توجه!
- حق عضویت دریافتی صرف حمایت از نشریات عضو و نگهداری، تکمیل و توسعه مگیران میشود.
- پرداخت حق اشتراک و دانلود مقالات اجازه بازنشر آن در سایر رسانههای چاپی و دیجیتال را به کاربر نمیدهد.
In order to view content subscription is required
Personal subscription
Subscribe magiran.com for 70 € euros via PayPal and download 70 articles during a year.
Organization subscription
Please contact us to subscribe your university or library for unlimited access!