An attempt to forecast employment by economic sectors: 4141(0402)

Forecasting employment and unemployment figures for Iran can help depict labor market condition on horizon of vision plan. Using ARIMAmodel, the author has aimed to forecast the share of economic sectors, namely agriculture, industry and mines and service sector, in Iran’s employment over the period of 6009-6062. The findings of this paper indicate that over the past 20years (6723-6003) employment trends have not been uniform for these sectors, i.e., it has been decreasing for agriculture and increasing at a slow rate for industry and mines. For service sectors it has been constantly increasing.The findings further provide the ground to argue that this pattern of developments in employment would be maintained on the horizon of vision plan in 6101(6062).