An Investigation into Bullwhip Effect in 3-stage Milk and its Products supply chain and the Application of System Models for Estimating the Demand

Milk and its Products Supply chain is one of the most important chains of agricultural products. In this study, it has been tried to, first, analyze the consumption behavior of urban households in Kerman using time series data for the years 1995- 2015 and Almost Ideal Demand System and then, to investigate one of the most important phenomena in supply chains called Bullwhip effect using moving average method. One of the main causes of this effect is the lack of accurate and in-time information of the demand in different levels of supply chain as well as long lead times. The results show the existence of Bullwhip effect in supply chain of pegah products in Kerman city, accordingly, if actors of supply Chain of dairy products correctly predict products demand in contrast to price changes with regard to various elastics of products, this will lead to more targeted programs and the efficiency of supply chain as well