The Effects of Climate Change on Invasion Potential of Wild Barley (Hordeum spontaneum K.Koch) in Iran and the World

IntroductionInvasive species present a major threat to biodiversity, which may be boosted due to the climate change effects, particularly if desired weather conditions allow weed to spread to new areas. Identification of areas climatically suitable to weed establishment can offer great opportunities for stopping or decelerating invasion process. Bioclimatic and species distribution models that relate geographic data of a species to environmental variables have become an important modeling tool in invasion ecology. Although the predicted area by climex as suitable environmental for a species does not mean that, it can necessarily establish there, it does suggest a beneficial knowledge about detecting areas with invasion potential.
Taking advantage of climate match index to predict the potential invasion of wild barley grass weed in Iran and other world regions under current climate and different climate change scenarios are the objectives of current research .Identifying suitable environmental areas for invasive species provides an opportunity to prevent or slow down the invasion process
Materials and methodsBased on the presence intensity index of weeds, the climate of infestation hotspots in the Lorestan province, including Khorramabad (Aymanabad and Rimmelleh region), Dorud, Kuhdasht and Aleshtar, were defined as the favorable climate for wild barley. Wild barley-infected foci climate in Lorestan province was considered as a desirable climate for this weed. Climatic similarity of different regions of the world with the intended zone was evaluated as a criterion of invasion susceptibility of those regions in the current conditions and under climate change scenarios by using Climex model.
Results and DiscussionResults showed that Kermanshah, Tehran, Hamedan, Kurdistan, Markazi, Qazvin and Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari with composite match Index greater than 0.81 in compare to infected area in Lorestan, were the most prone province of Iran for wild barley weed establishment. under climate change scenarios, Zanjan, Hamedan, Ardebil, West Azarbaijan, East Azarbaijan, Kurdistan, Chharmhal and bakhtyary, and Markazi climate conditions will be more favorable in comparison with the current situation for establishment of wild barley weed, and the climate conditions in other provinces will be less favorable. Under climate change scenarios condition, the climate conditions of Lorestan will be 8.5% unfavorable to establish wild barley. Islamabad gharb, Borujerd, Ivan, Tuyserkan, Kangavar, peers, Kermanshah, Kamyaran, Ardal, Silakhor, Sararood, Sanandaj, Shamiran Tehran, Rawansar, Rvmshkan, Skinheads, Ilam, Farsan, Tazehabad, Nourabad Delfan, Mahabad, Azna, Songhor, Harsin, Sisakht, Khorramabad, Sepidan, Zarghan, Moalem Kalayeh, Sarableh, Bukan, Qazvin, Shahin Dez, Bane, Bilasuvar, Shazand, Takhte jamshid, Arak, Khomeini, Hashtgerd, Saghez, Oshnavieh, Saman, Khondab, Shiraz, Shahr kord, and Malayer with a composite match index of greater than 0.9 were considered the most vulnerable regions against the wild barley invasion. In the current climate situation, Spain, United States of America, Algeria, Greece, Syria, Turkey, Italy, Australia, Uzbekistan, Tunisia, Pakistan, Iraq, Morocco, Chile, Afghanistan, Bulgaria, Macedonia, Portugal, Argentina, Turkmenistan, Libya, Romania, Jordan, South Africa, France, Armenia, Ukraine, Palestine and China have at least one region with composite match index greater than 0.8 for wild barley weed infested region in Lorestan province. Climate conditions of North Korea, Switzerland, South Korea, Hungary, Austria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Mongolia, Luxembourg, Czech Republic, Germany, Canada, Poland, Romania, Yugoslavia, South Georgia, Belgium, Russia, Bulgaria, Netherlands, Ukraine, Sweden, Kazakhstan, Finland, Belarus, England, Norway, France, Denmark and Ireland become 10-30% more vulnerable to wild barley invasion, according to the UK scenario for the year 2080, climate change in compared with current weather condition.
ConclusionsEurope was the most talented continent for invasion of wild barley, and South America and the Africa continents in the current and future climates respectively had the minimum risk for establishment of wild barley.