Using an Ensemble Prediction System Developed for the WRF Model to Predict Surface Wind Over Persian Gulf

This work is devoted to present the results of an ensemble prediction system developed for the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to predict surface wind over the Persian Gulf. To construct the ensemble members a combination of perturbed initial condition (using Monte Carlo method) and model perturbations (using multi physical parameterization schemes) is employed. Here, an ensemble prediction system with 15 members (three physical parameterization schemes and five initial condition perturbations for each one) is used to generate the surface wind and other meteorological field predictions over the Persian Gulf. Assessment of the ensemble mean against the observational in situ and satellite (e.g., ASCAT and QuikSCAT) data indicates promising performance of the ensemble prediction system over the deterministic predictions.