Estimation of Gender-Specific Lung Cancer Deaths due to Exposure to PM2.5 in 10 Cities of Iran During 2013 - 2016: A Modeling Approach

Various epidemiological studies have related fine particles (PM2.5) to incidence of lung cancer. In addition, particulate air pollution has been classified as Group 1 carcinogen by international agency for research on cancer (IARC) in 2013.

The aim of this study was to quantify the number of gender-specific lung cancer deaths due to exposure to PM2.5 among individuals aged over 30 years using WHO AirQ model in 10 cities of Iran during March 2013-March 2016.

Hourly concentrations of PM2.5 were obtained from department of environment (DOE) of Iran and Tehran air quality control company (TAQCC). Demographic information and baseline incidence (BI) were acquired from statistical center of Iran, ministry of health and medical education, respectively. AirQ model was used to quantify the lung cancer deaths among males and females aged over 30 years.

The highest lung cancer deaths were in Tehran with approximately 407 cases of death during the whole three-year period. The total deaths among men and women in the whole period were 433 and 431 cases, respectively. The sum of lung cancer deaths due to PM2.5 exposure in all the 10 cities during these 3 years were estimated 864 cases. In addition, the attributable proportion of lung cancer due to PM2.5 exposure in each city was estimated. Despite the high number of lung cancer deaths in Tehran, higher AP values were observed in cities such as Isfahan, Ahvaz, Khoram Abad and Arak, reflecting the higher risk of death per unit of population.

The results of this study could be used by authorities for making air pollution reduction strategies and plans. Furthermore, any reduction in attributed mortality and hospitalization reduces financial burden in health organizations.