The Impact of Monetary and Real Variables on Capital Market Return with Using the Model PLS-TVPVAR

One of the most important tasks of the financial economy modeling for the nose price volatility and risk assets.in terms of a variables price and policymakers swing analysis flexibility is key to understand market fluctuations help. so the analysts need to correctly predict price flexibility of swing as a necessary input to perform tasks such as risk management, portfolio allocation , value at risk asset on the basis investment of price and of the present research on the use of models combine TVP-VAR and PLS in the XLSTAT and MATLAB software over the period 1377-1 until 1396-6 (monthly) with the use of real variables(industrial) production, investment, real economic growth in the housing sector, the share of government spending to GDP growth and the rate of (non-oil export) and variables money (the money supply, inflation, exchange rates, incomes of oil and prices internal of Gold). On the efficiency of stock exchange of Tehran. Based on the outcome of the PLS model variables are economic growth and oil incomes variables into the model TVP-VAR. Model based on results. This economic growth during period of 0 until 6/0. The growth of oil incomes in 3.0 until 1.0 on the efficiency of stock have been transition effects. According to the results of an emphasis on the implementation of policies that will strengthen the real sector (supply side policies) over the policies markets monetary sector (demand Department policies) can cause the stock to improve the situation of Guarantee.