Modeling Exogenous Economic Variables Affecting Business Environment, applying Auto Regression Distributed Lags (ARDL) and System Dynamics Approach (case study: the Non-Metallic Mineral Industry)

This paper seeks to model exogenous variables affecting Non-Metallic Mineral Industry business environment conducted using the Auto Regression Distributed Lags (ARDL) and System Dynamics method. For this purpose, considering variables affecting the mentoioned industry and business, required data collected for a 7 year period. Which used for ARDL method. ARDL estimated equations used in for system dynamic modeling and the behavior of these variables simulated for the horizon of year 1400. Results showed that behavior of the endogenous variables are highly influenced by environmental variables while causing immediate and short term effects. Hence result of impact of policies and important economic variables on business environment and industrial enterprises should not be merely based on the analysis of short time period but it should reviewed during long time period breaks.