Analyzing the Appraisal Models and Providing a Conceptual Framework for Decision Making in Defensive Organizations

Security and defense space has unique characteristics which creates different atmosphere for decision-making process in this area. Complexity, ambiguity, multiplicity and diversity of decision variables, and most importantly high speed of environmental changes have imposed some essentialities to decision-making models in security and defense area. Among these cases are feedback policy and decision evaluation. Policy and decision evaluation is so important that some experts consider to its importance equal as decision-making and senior managers do not make decisions without going through this process. In this study, in addition to the general concept of the decision-making and its components, causes of the failure, an effective conceptual framework will be offered. To provide a conceptual framework we used a mixed approach, as well as the study of the background research and presenting extracted indices in the experts panel. Panel established by 12 experts in policy making and defense security to determine dimensions and discussion to provide the conceptual framework. After presenting the framework on the panel, several subjects such as continues monitoring at the strategic environment, trends analysis, to consider weak signals and drivers emphasized on the panel.