Stream flow simulation using statistical downscaling of climatic data: Urmia Lake Basin

Due to the importance of climate change phenomenon, “Urmia Lake Basin”, as one of the most important basins in Iran from environmental, economic, social, etc., aspects, was selected to study climate change and its effects on surface flow. In this study, the outputs of HadCM3 were downscaled by SDSM downscaling model, under A2 and B2 emission scenarios and then, the future stream flow data were simulated by the use of IHACRES model for the period of 2041-2070. The results showed that the amount of precipitation will decrease 0.1 mm under the A2 scenario and will increase 0.03 mm under the B2 scenario in future. Using HadCM3 model revealed that the mean temperature will increase 1.2 and 1.1 ° C under A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. The results of stream flow simulation revealed that the surface flow will increase 24.6 % under the A2 scenario and will decrease 4.6 % under scenario B2 in future. Based on the climatic scenarios assessment, climate change will impact on water resources of the Basin and studying these effects by different methods will provide better results for decision-makers of the Basin.