The Study of Factors Influencing Corrugated Board Supply and Demand in Iran: A Systematic Approach

Corrugated board is considered a valuable commodity for packaging at both international and domestic markets. therefore it is necessary to identify the consumption and production patterns as well as the most important and effective variables on it for the development of corrugated board production industry in Iran and understanding the variation in demand for this product, Based on this information it can be forecasted. In this study, the dynamic econometric model has been used to demonstrate simultaneous relationship between supply and demand. Coefficients of the model were estimated applying 3SLS procedure with the time series data from 1981 to 2007. In this respect before estimating equations Augmented Dicky-Fuller (ADF) test was used for the analysis of the variables cointegration at 5% significant level.The study results indicated that in the demand function, the variables including, intercept, price,GNP in the previous period, Population, CPI, industrial added value IAV and the war dummy are significantly different at 0.05% level. However, in the supply function, intercept, production ,consumption and import quantity in the previous period, inflation rate, cost price in the previous period simultaneously influence consumption and production.