Developing a Baseline Approach for Modeling Land use Change

In recent decades, we have witnessed a rapid and increasing growth in urban population and urbanization. One of the most notable effects of rapid urbanization in countries such as Iran is the emergence of a phenomenon known as land scarcity, which in turn leads to a struggle for land ownership in urban areas. The most noticeable political measure taken by urban masses in many cities is the illegal seizure of land in areas outside city limits. Such measures have contributed to the unplanned urban development and have further hindered future urban land-use planning efforts. Rapid growth of technology and increased complexity of daily activities have encouraged people to seek awareness and knowledge about the latest technologies in an attempt to adapt themselves to the world around them. At the same time, limitations have prompted individuals to use natural resources responsibly, take actions to prevent environmental damage, and put in an increasingly great deal of effort to improve workforce health and conditions. Today, the use of agent-based technologies in solving problems associated with the approaches and methods applied in urban land-use planning efforts has considerably increased. In the present study, Tehran’s urban growth was investigated within a five-year period. The model’s agents included parcels of land, physical limitations, suitability, and protected areas. In each time step, these agents were able to change their status from undeveloped to developed. This study was aimed at developing a dynamic agent-based model to model urban growth as the major factor influencing land-use changes. An agent’s decision to change its status depended on the specified eligibility criteria and the existing limitations and constrains. In addition, each agent’s relevant features were also assessed. Finally, an overview of the agent-based modeling (ABM) approach and its integration into a geographic information system (GIS) were presented.
The findings showed that if the land suitability were estimated 50 and 100, the number of developed parcels of land would be 4192 and 4424, respectively. This results indicated that the behaviors of Tehran residents followed the initial estimated land suitability (100).