An investigation on the seismicity of Iran seismotectonic provinces using Monte Carlo simulation

Empirical relationships between earthquake magnitude and frequency of occurrence, e.g. Gutenberg - Richter’s relationship, have been presented for a special region using limited historical data. These relationships usually involve many sources of uncertainty (frequency of occurrence, magnitude, etc.). Therefore, it is necessary to use probabilistic simulation for determination of earthquake occurrence frequency instead of the deterministic one. In the present, Monte Carlo simulation, as the most preferred approach for probabilistic simulation, is used to evaluate seismic potential of Iran provinces. On the basis of probabilistic analyses, the frequency of earthquake occurrence by assuming a normal distribution of magnitudes and different occurrence probability are determined for 20 seismotectonic provinces of Iran. Furthermore, it can be concluded that the province situated in southwest of Iran (i.e. region number 12) is the most seismically active region and province number 16 (situated in the northwest of Iran) is the least seismically active region of Iran.