Modeling the spatial distribution of climate change impacts on Saffron Cultivation for future period A Case Study: South Khorasan

. Agriculture is the most vulnerable sectors. Given that most rural livelihood is agriculture, including the cultivation of saffron. Knowledge of the future status of such variables influencing the temperature is very important for future planning. This study explores the changes in temperature until 2100 in South Khorasan Province deals. The main purpose of the identification of the main focuses of temperature change and displacement that followed in the cultivation of saffron. The method of this study was to evaluate changes in temperature in greenhouse gases and using the hybrid model MAGICC-SENEN and using general circulation models of the atmosphere HADCM3 and ECHO-G under 18, including climate change scenarios A1B, B1 and A2 for the next decade to 2100 was conducted. The 2000-1961 period as the previous period and the period 2100-2016 were selected as future periods. The results show that in all the province for decades to come will be an increasing trend of temperature changes, the temperature increase is more since 2025. In some areas of southern and central provinces, including the northern region of the temperature rise would be higher. Saffron growing areas in the province in the coming period from spread in the city of poets, Cain, and Asadiyeh Paradise Island deformation pattern will be more compatible with saffron and plain Nimbluk, khezri and will in the coming period.