The Impact of sanctions on non-oil exports of Iran: Structural time series approach

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of sanctions on Iran's non-oil exports during the period 1979-2013. The method of this research is to document the data and to analyze the econometric model with structural time series method which has modeled factors influencing non-oil exports. The results of the model estimation have shown that sanctions have a significant negative effect on non-oil exports of the country. Also, real GDP, openness rate and real exchange rate have a significant positive effect on non-oil exports of the country. The terms of trade or the ratio of the price index of exported goods to imported goods, has a significant negative effect on non-oil exports. The results also show that the level and gradient of the underlying trend have a significant effect on non-oil exports, which shows the significant effect of the non-visible factors on non-oil exports. Based on the results of the research, the necessity of adopting economic policies based on the development of non-oil exports and dealing with sanctions conditions is proposed.