Effect of climate change on phenological stages and growth stages of wheat in Zabol region

Climate change can affect the crop yield and water consumption in agriculture by changing duration of phenological stage, crop yield and evapotranspiration. In this research a number of GCM models were selected and forecasted annual mean temperature of the region was validated. The climate models forecast 2 to 5 °C by the end of this century in Zabol. Therefore, three temperature scenarios (zero, +2 and +5), representing no temperature change, the minimum temperature increasing and the maximum temperature increasing, respectively were added to the observed data temperature. The effect of climate change was examined on duration the growth season and phonological stages of wheat (Triticum aestivum), as well as evapotranspiration in Zabol based on planting date and conventional variety. The GDD method was used for calculating the phonologic stages. Hargreaves – Samani model was used for measuring the effect of climate change scenarios on evapotranspiration. Results showed that 2 °C increasing temperature by the end of the century reduced growth duration of wheat by 14 days compared to no temperature change. In addition, early growth evapotranspiration decreased by 20 percent. Increasing 5 °C decrease growth duration of wheat by 32 days and increasing early evapotranspiration by 46 % growth in region. Climate change influenced wheat culture in region. Coping with these changes require planning for production components change according to today's conditions or define new conditions based on adaptive patterns.