Evaluation of Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change based on Social, Economic and Environmental Resilience Indicators

In this study, Tashk-Bakhtegan, with high interaction among of its systems, was studied. Firstly, To simulate effects of climate change, precipitation and temperature variable were be extracted from the Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model (CanESM2 and MPI-ESM-LR, GFDL-ESM2G) by the new scenario of greenhouse gases (RCP2.6). To minimize uncertainty because of the downscaling method, three methods of multisite downscaling (XDS, Sequential k-nearest neighbor imputation method (SKNN) and Statistical Downscaling Model–Decision Centric (SDSM–DC)) were used. Then, the integrated dynamic model for the catchment scale was prepared. The effects of the climate change scenario and its adaptation strategies were simulated in the basin in the future period. Finally, measures of water security indicators were identified based on social, economic and environmental dimensions during the base and future period. Moreover, the influences of appropriate strategies on the reduction of vulnerability have evaluated the basis of indicators changing. The results show that economic water productivity in agricultural sector should be increased by increasing irrigation efficiency and agricultural activity should be reduced concerning decrease the vulnerability of system in the future period, and it is necessary to increase industry activity to economic and social indemnity.