Tehran Tourism industry foresight

Tourism will be one of the fast growing industries. Unlike many other industries that are affected by the advancement of technology, they can completely change, tourism will have a larger share of the economy of countries and cities. But the potential contribution of tourism in urban economics, such as Tehran, is fraught with uncertainties, which should be used for future prospecting to understand its future. In this regard, the present study tries to address the tourism industry's future prospects in Tehran. The focus of this article is on foreign tourists. From the perspective of the research method, this research is applied and descriptive-analytic, and uses the methods of the future workshop, panel of experts and scenario planning. Six key drivers were identified with increasing demand for travel throughout the world, foreign relations, innovative businesses, tourism freedoms, government economic and infrastructures in Tehran, with two adventurers with titles of state economics and foreign relations as uncertainty. By identifying two key uncertainties, namely, the planned economy and foreign relations, the present study was divided into four independent scenarios for the future of tourism in Tehran, respectively: The firs "scenario scary Tehran", the second "Tehran: hosting unwanted guests", the third "Awaited Tehran" and the last one "Tehran: free visit to the public". The findings of the research show that Tehran's tourism situation is not good except in free visit to the public scenario, and this industry cannot contribute to Tehran's urban economy.