The Presentation of a Model for Analyzing the Behavior of the Enemy Using Hidden Markov Models Based on Electronic Warfare Observations in Complex War Scenes

Modeling is one of the basic tools for planning complex wars. Today’s wars are very different due to the complexity and dynamism of the scenes compared with traditional wars and require the rapid and dynamic command and control so that they can react quickly against the changes in the battle scene and make     decisions. In the information age, with the complexity of the battle scenes and the digitization of the        battlefield, the observations of commanders are made using electronic warfare systems. In this paper, the sensemaking process of the stimuli and physical actions of the enemy in the war scene, which expresses our intuitive appreciation of the situation, has been modeled using hidden Markov models (HMM) based on the electronic warfare observations. This model has been used to analyze the behavior of the enemy and       determine his operational objectives for the military decision-making process in order to adopt an          appropriate response to the enemy. For this purpose, a possible United States’ war scenario against the Islamic Republic of Iran has been studied from an electronic warfare perspective and used as the base of modeling. The time-invariant hidden Markov model of the first-order type has been considered, implying that all probabilities that describe the model do not change with time. The results of simulations show that this model is a good way to determine the enemy’s operational objectives and the decision-making process based on the electronic warfare observations of physical actions in complex war scenes.