Evaluation of the structural shocks effect on production instability in the Iranian economy

Economic volatility has been decreased over the past three decades in the world especially in type of GDP growth, as known the "Great Moderation”. There is no agreement on the causes of this. But there are three categories of causes: the good luck, good policy and structural changes hypotheses. The purpose of this research is evaluate the three hypotheses in the form of the relationship between the real GDP volatility, monetary policy index, the structural change indicator, exchange rate and oil revenues during the period of 1352-1396 in Iran. This research is using a structural vector autoregressive model (SVAR) with application of the Blanchard-Quah (B-Q) restrictions. According to the results, the impact of the monetary policy index on the volatility of production is 0.971, the impact of the financial liberalization is 0.1, and the revolution and war is 0.978. The effect of monetary policy shocks on production volatility is 0.971 which is more than two factors of good chance (oil revenue fluctuation 0.831 and exchange rate of 0.587) and structural change effect (capital inflow) of 0.002. Therefore, all three categories of factors affect production volaility in Iran.