Predicting the risk of breast cancer using Gail and International Breast Cancer Intervention Study (IBIS) models: A study in the southeast of Iran

Breast cancer is the most common malignancy and the second leading cause of malignancy in women, worldwide. Early diagnosis can lead to timely treatment and increase the life expectancy of patients. Various models have been designed to determine the risk of disease and identifying high-risk women. This study was performed with aim to evaluate the risk of breast cancer using different models in women of Kerman.

This cross-sectional study was performed on 454 women aged 35-75 years referred to comprehensive health centers in Kerman in 2018. The questions from the Gail and IBIS questionnaire were asked to assess the risk of developing 5-year and lifetime breast cancer risk. Data were analyzed by SPSS software (version 20) and Pearson correlation test. P<0.05 was considered statistically significant.

Mean of 5-year risk score for breast cancer was 0.81 ± 0.65% based on Gail model and 0.81 ± 0.58% based on IBIS model. Also, mean of lifetime risk based on Gail and IBIS models was 10.53 ± 5.52% and 11.28 ± 3.94%, respectively. There was a significant positive linear relationship between 5-year risk (r = 0.67) and lifetime risk (r = 0.51) on Gail and IBIS models (p<0.001).

In comprehensive health centers, risk assessment models can be used to identify high risk people for breast cancer. The Gail and IBIS models are relatively similar in risk prediction and their results are correlated.