Analyzing the consequences of urban land use on rural residences using satellite imagery and Markov chain model (Case study: Kerman city)

Expansion without the urban plan of the city and its integration with villages and urban settlements in developing countries, including Iran, is unavoidable. It can be said that one of the most important factors in the dispersed growth of the city of Kerman has been changes without land use planning. Hence, predicting these changes can play a significant role in future management decisions and future plans of the city.

Considering the high performance of the CA-Markov model in predicting land use changes, in this study, this model was designed with the aim of predicting the development trend and land use changes in the year 1406 horizons. From satellite images of the years 1368, 1379, 1387 and 1396 To predict and detect changes.

The results show that in the prediction map of 1406, the area of ​​the three classes, the lands constructed 10273 hectares, the land of 1229 hectares and the vegetation of 9983 hectares will be. Also, the map shows that the area of ​​dry land classes and vegetation decreased by 118 and 219 hectares, respectively. Also, the class of lands constructed from the base year (1396) did not change significantly.

Considering the high efficiency of this model in forecasting land use changes, its results can be used in future planning and decision making in Kerman.