The Duration of Days with Heat Waves in Different Climates Using Markov Chain

The temperature changes have shown increasing trend in recent decades and these changes are much more significant in regions like Iran, which is located in the arid and semi-arid belt of the world. Intensive heat waves are of the most important climatic disasters, which have devastating environmental implications in the nature every year. In this study, the simple probability, stationary probability and consecutive probability of 2-5 days were calculated, after identifying the heat waves. For this purpose, the 30 years data of daily maximum temperature from 16 stations with different climates (cold and dry to moderate humid climates) and were used for application of the first order Markov chain. Results indicated that the maximum and minimum values of the simple probability with of the heat wave days were observed at Bandar- Abbas and Khorram Abad stations with amount 6.1% and 0.2%, respectively. Also, Bandar- Abbas station had the maximum percentage of the average consecutive probability of 2-5 days with the heat wave amounts of 2.91, 1.40, 0.67 and 0.31%, respectively.