Pattern of Changes in Age-Specific Fertility Rates, Total Fertility Rate, and Cohort Fertility Rate in Rural Areas of Fars Province, Southern Iran (1988-2012)

To investigate the trend of changes in Age-Specific Fertility Rate (ASFR), Total Fertility Rate (TFR), and Cohort Fertility Rate (CFR) in rural areas of Fars province, southern Iran during 1988-2012.

This cross-sectional study was conducted based on analyze fluctuations in fertility. Information about the number of births and mothers aged 15-49 years was collected. By calculating the ASFR, TFR, and CFR along with analyzing their patterns the trend of changes in fertility rate would be revealed. Finally, modeling and time series forecast of ASFR based on age groups was conducted using the SPSS software.

The TFR was estimated to be 4.21, 2.1, 1.76, 1.65, and 1.78 per thousand in 1992, 1997, 2002, 2007, and 2012, respectively. Moreover, CFR was 2.01, 1.54, 1.05, 0.54, and 0.13 for those born during 1972-1976, 1977-1981, 1982-1986, 1987-1990, and 1991-1995, respectively. Also the time trend of ASFR based on age groups showed a negative slope.

The fertility followed a negative slope during 1992-2012, indicating their descending trend during these years. TFR = 2.1 was a standard population replacement rate in the societies. Therefore, continual decline of this rate during 1992-2012 could be a warning factor that requires planning for reform and precise evaluation.