Predicting energy consumption in Iran: Application of GM-ARMA model based on Hadrick-Prescott filter

Energy as a driving force in most manufacturing and service activities plays an important role, and since the core of the economic growth process is GDP growth, it plays an important role in the economic growth and development of countries. In addition to energy price fluctuations as well as scarcity of energy resources, another important factor that doubles the need to examine the relationship between energy production and consumption is the environmental issues that all countries face.
An outlook analysis of energy consumption forecasts enables managers to take the necessary measures to control the variables of supply and demand for energy. This bottleneck helps provide policy advice to support investment. Increasing the accuracy of many energy consumption forecasting models requires identifying all the trends and variables and strategies affecting energy markets. Therefore, in the present study using gray systems theory (GM), gray prediction model is considered as a suitable model to improve energy consumption prediction performance. Also the energy consumption up to 1400 is predicted and estimated according to the model.