The Role of Iranian Banks’ Loan Loss Provision Quality in Dealing with Banking System Crisis

The main goal of this research is to examine managerial discretion in estimating loan loss provision. We also seek to address the dispute in the literature about whether this discretion is applied for opportunistic or efficiency causes.

The research sample consists of 15 Iranian banks listed in the Tehran Stock Exchange during the period of 2006-2017. Panel data and logistic regressions are used in a two-step approach to answer research questions. At first, abnormal loan loss provision (ALLP) is estimated and then 3 relationships have been assessed using three distinct models.

The results show that 1) there is a non-significant positive relationship between crisis index and ALLP; 2) there is a significant positive relationship between ALLP and bank risk-taking; and 3) there is a negative relationship between ALLP and loss avoidance behavior.

The results indicate that the current model for calculating loan loss provision (set by Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran) is not effective for preventing banks from engaging in destructive behaviors. We also find that Iranian banks' managers are using their discretion in a constructive manner. Positive (negative) relationship between ALLP and risk-taking (loss avoidance) support this notion.