foresight Urban Development based on scenarios (Case Study: Ahwaz Metropolis)

Today, looking at the future has made the smart man not just look for the future, but build on his own by using a variety of tools. The purpose of the present study is to investigate the future of scenario writing in the urban development of Ahvaz metropolis based on CIB and CIB.

The present paper is of applied purpose and descriptive-analytical method. This research was conducted in three stages of determining key indicators through Delphi method, identifying effective propellants through MicMac software based on cross-effects analysis method and scenario development based on Cyber Scenario Wizard software.

The results of the research out of 37 key factors, 10 factors including population, air pollution control, industry, tourism-oriented organization, production of special products, empowerment of organizations, attention to workshops expansion, attention to tourism industry, region organization Identifies the periphery and the open space as influencing factors in Ahwaz's urban development. Finally, the critical factors were formulated with three situations, and 82% of them indicated the desirability and 18% indicated the stability and crisis of Ahwaz urban development.

As a consequence of the most desirable scenario, scenario number one is proposed which includes population-based, air-based pollution control, development-based industry, tourism-based organization of improvement, current-based specialty production, empowerment-based organizations. Increasingly, the focus has been on expanding development-based workshops, focusing on development-based tourism, organizing improvement-based margins and expanding outdoor spaces.