Investigation of Uncertainties in a Rainfall-Runoff Conceptual Model for Simulation of Basin using Bayesian Method

Taleghan River is one of the most important rivers in the country because of its flow to Taleghan Dam, which supplies drinking water to this area as well as part of the city of Tehran. Long-term river discharge data are needed to design hydroelectric power stations and manage water resources. Regarding the existing monitoring stations are scattered and cannot provide sufficient hydrological data for the basin we employ rainfall-runoff models which are popular tools for expanding hydrological data over time and space. In this paper, the feasibility of applying a conceptual rainfall-runoff model called HYMOD to a part of Taleghan River Basin is investigated. The generalized probability estimation method was used for model calibration and uncertainty analysis. The results show that the observed discharges are satisfactorily consistent with the observations, indicating that the hydrological model is working well and applying HYMOD to estimate long time series of river discharge in the study area is turning reasonable results.