Predicting the Survival of AIDS Patients Using Two Frameworks of Statistical Joint Modeling and Comparing Their Predictive Accuracy

The present study aimed to estimate the survival of HIV-positive patients and compare the accuracy of two commonly used models, Shared Random-Effect Model (SREM) and Joint Latent Class Model (JLCM) for the analysis of time to death among these patients.

Data on a retrospective survey among HIV-positive patients diagnosed during 1989-2014 who referred to the Behavioral Diseases Consultation Center of Mashhad University of Medical Sciences was used in this study. Participants consisted of HIV-positive high-risk volunteers, referrals of new HIV cases from prisons, blood transfusion organization and hospitals. Subjects were followed from diagnosis until death or the end of study. SREM and JLCM were used to predict the survival of HIV/AIDS patients. In both models age, sex and addiction were included as covariates. To compare the accuracy of these alternative models, dynamic predictions were calculated at specific time points. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to select the more accurate model.

Overall, 213 patients were eligible that met entry conditions for the present analysis. Based on BIC criteria, three heterogeneous sub-populations of patients were identified by JLCM and individuals were categorized in these classes (“High Risk”, “Moderate Risk” and “Low Risk”) according to their health status. JLCM had a better predictive accuracy than SREM. The average area under ROC curve for JLCM and SREM was 0.75 and 0.64 respectively. In both models CD4 count decreased with time. Based on the result of JLCM, men had higher hazard rate than women and the CD4 counts levels of patients decreased with increasing age.

Predicting risk of death (or survival) is vital for patients care in most medical research. In a heterogeneous population, such as HIV-positive patients fitting JLCM can significantly improve the accuracy of the risk prediction. Therefore, this model is preferred for these populations.